Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

[Member]

Thanks. I suppose it's partly a case of semantics. If they had just said "enough for 15 million people" there wouldn't be that question.

I think there's also more to worry about than just supply chain. I suspect there's going to be a lot of arguing (at a macro and micro level) over who gets it first. I know in general they're saying people at risk and people on the front line, but in both of those categories there's going to be issues. For example, do Firemen count as front line? Do the Police? And once you've decided that the Police do count, are we talking the constables who are actually out and about, or the chief inspectors who spend their time behind a desk? I think we all know who should, but we also know who will.

Another question for you: the headlines also said this vaccine is 90% effective. How does that compare with other vaccines for other viruses?

Yeah it was poorly worded really. I think the doses were reported in that way due to uncertainty about if you'd need just one or if you'd need a booster, but the Pfizer vaccine has only been trialed with a booster so should have been clearer.

I'll reply about prioritisation in a minute, because GNH asked the same thing.

It's apples and oranges to compare different vaccines, but 90% is really really good. Flu vaccines for example are now evaluated in the population rather than in large phase 3 studies, so the results you get are from population epidemiology and real world use, rather than from a study, as per this case. Note that the Pfizer vaccine has quite a novel method of action, so it's cutting edge and comparing it to other vaccines of other types isn't immediately helpful. 90% efficacy may not be achieved in the real world (people may not show for their second dose, for example) but that's a really good starting point to work from

I'm keen to know what it does for symptomatic COVID-19 as well, because if it reduces severity as well as avoids transmission then that's even better.

 

[Member]

Let's hope so.

I assume the rationale behind it will be to vaccinate the highest risk people first.

It would then hopefully follow that the rest of the population will be allowed to get on with our lives before we all ****ing die of old age.

Any idea of timeacale should this be the way forward?

No idea on timescales. Hopefully if they can rush approval around Christmas then we could see doses arriving pretty much immediately after then.

The JCVI published their prioritisation advice and I see no reason why that won't be carried out

[Withdrawn] JCVI: updated interim advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination

www.gov.uk

1. older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
2. all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
3. all those 75 years of age and over
4. all those 70 years of age and over
5. all those 65 years of age and over
6. high-risk adults under 65 years of age
7. moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
8. all those 60 years of age and over
9. all those 55 years of age and over
10. all those 50 years of age and over
11. rest of the population (priority to be determined)

I have no clue about how quickly they can start moving through that list. The dual-dose adds complexity to this. My gut feeling is that the first half of next year will be about prioritising vaccination of maybe groups 1-6 (e.g. everyone pretty much 'high risk') and then the rest of the year will be about vaccinating the general population.

Also there's a balance to be had about people starting to relax about things and that leading to cases building up, alongside how quickly vaccinations can take place and how quickly things can start to return to normal.

Don't forget there are other trials about to report, and having multiple vaccine options was always the most likely and most preferred approach, different vaccines have different efficacy/safety profiles for different age groups and risk groups.

This will help because for something like flu we have 4-5 different vaccines, and you don't need to give the most effective to every single group, getting to herd immunity more quickly is the ultimate goal. I could imagine a situation where another vaccine comes online and they start planning for using that in the general population in say the second half of 2021. The Pfizer one could be expensive relative to others given the unique method of action, which is another factor.

Also the antibody and therapeutic treatments (which is what I'm working on) are coming along quickly and may really help as well.

 

[RHB]

Let's hope so.

I assume the rationale behind it will be to vaccinate the highest risk people first.

It would then hopefully follow that the rest of the population will be allowed to get on with our lives before we all ****ing die of old age.

Any idea of timeacale should this be the way forward?

Hopefully, if this vaccine is good enough, you will indeed die of old age.

 

[Mad Cyril]

It would appear that pretty much everyone is ignoring the lockdown now.

 

[THE SEVENTIES NORTH BANK]

It would appear that pretty much everyone is ignoring the lockdown now.

Sorry....What lockdown?

 

[Member]

Just to update expectations, I'm literally on a call with senior people in the know who believe we're still a year away from widespread/mass vaccination even if they start being approved early 2021. Doesn't mean that 2021 is going to be like 2020 at all, but this comes from people who have a good view of the supply chain/programme challenges we face.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Joe Biden has given rousing pro mask covid action speech.
He can't read his cue script very well but has certainly given a boost to covid fighting in the USA and elsewhere.

 

[Holy Joe]

Any views on the safety of the vaccine? How many people are in the trials?

 

[RHB]

Any views on the safety of the vaccine? How many people are in the trials?

According to the Beeb:

Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.

 

[Supernaut]

It would appear that pretty much everyone is ignoring the lockdown now.

While I've personally followed all guidelines as best as I can for both lockdowns, I don't blame anyone who's decided that if the rules don't apply to Dominic Cummings or Stanley Johnson then they don't apply to them.

 

[Tinks]

No idea on timescales. Hopefully if they can rush approval around Christmas then we could see doses arriving pretty much immediately after then.

The JCVI published their prioritisation advice and I see no reason why that won't be carried out

[Withdrawn] JCVI: updated interim advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination

www.gov.uk

1. older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
2. all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
3. all those 75 years of age and over
4. all those 70 years of age and over
5. all those 65 years of age and over
6. high-risk adults under 65 years of age
7. moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
8. all those 60 years of age and over
9. all those 55 years of age and over
10. all those 50 years of age and over
11. rest of the population (priority to be determined)

I have no clue about how quickly they can start moving through that list. The dual-dose adds complexity to this. My gut feeling is that the first half of next year will be about prioritising vaccination of maybe groups 1-6 (e.g. everyone pretty much 'high risk') and then the rest of the year will be about vaccinating the general population.

Also there's a balance to be had about people starting to relax about things and that leading to cases building up, alongside how quickly vaccinations can take place and how quickly things can start to return to normal.

Don't forget there are other trials about to report, and having multiple vaccine options was always the most likely and most preferred approach, different vaccines have different efficacy/safety profiles for different age groups and risk groups.

This will help because for something like flu we have 4-5 different vaccines, and you don't need to give the most effective to every single group, getting to herd immunity more quickly is the ultimate goal. I could imagine a situation where another vaccine comes online and they start planning for using that in the general population in say the second half of 2021. The Pfizer one could be expensive relative to others given the unique method of action, which is another factor.

Also the antibody and therapeutic treatments (which is what I'm working on) are coming along quickly and may really help as well.

We have had some info come through this afternoon actually regarding all this.
Mr Hancock states he wants this “rolled out” ASAP and has suggested that surgeries operate 7 days a week (inc Xmas/Boxing Day) to ensure it is delivered. Don’t know when he expects us to have days off mind although I have put myself forward to to deliver it.
Looking at the information given there are two doses, it has to be kept at -70-80c and you have to observe the individual for 15 mins after giving. Quite a few of my colleagues have said they are not going to have it. Me personally, I am happy to have it

 

[Holy Joe]

We have had some info come through this afternoon actually regarding all this.
Mr Hancock states he wants this “rolled out” ASAP and has suggested that surgeries operate 7 days a week (inc Xmas/Boxing Day) to ensure it is delivered. Don’t know when he expects us to have days off mind although I have put myself forward to to deliver it.
Looking at the information given there are two doses, it has to be kept at -70-80c and you have to observe the individual for 15 mins after giving. Quite a few of my colleagues have said they are not going to have it. Me personally, I am happy to have it

wow -70 to -80 is that normal? Is that easily achieved in the distribution chain and storage at surgeries etc?

 

[GNH]

We have had some info come through this afternoon actually regarding all this.
Mr Hancock states he wants this “rolled out” ASAP and has suggested that surgeries operate 7 days a week (inc Xmas/Boxing Day) to ensure it is delivered. Don’t know when he expects us to have days off mind although I have put myself forward to to deliver it.
Looking at the information given there are two doses, it has to be kept at -70-80c and you have to observe the individual for 15 mins after giving. Quite a few of my colleagues have said they are not going to have it. Me personally, I am happy to have it

What's their logic behind this, is it due to safety concerns?

If so then i'm sure that's going to give to anti-vaxers fuel for the fire if the front line staff are turning it down

 

[Member]

We have had some info come through this afternoon actually regarding all this.
Mr Hancock states he wants this “rolled out” ASAP and has suggested that surgeries operate 7 days a week (inc Xmas/Boxing Day) to ensure it is delivered. Don’t know when he expects us to have days off mind although I have put myself forward to to deliver it.
Looking at the information given there are two doses, it has to be kept at -70-80c and you have to observe the individual for 15 mins after giving. Quite a few of my colleagues have said they are not going to have it. Me personally, I am happy to have it

Interesting stuff. the frozen storage requirements will need specialist centres setting up because regular surgeries won't have the storage space I don't think. Given the priority is care home residents and staff I imagine some mobile systems will be set up. A massive challenge but if there's one thing we're good at in the UK it's organising a queue.

 

[Tinks]

Interesting stuff. the frozen storage requirements will need specialist centres setting up because regular surgeries won't have the storage space I don't think. Given the priority is care home residents and staff I imagine some mobile systems will be set up. A massive challenge but if there's one thing we're good at in the UK it's organising a queue.

Indeed. We do love a queue and our flu clinics this year have been up a d around the roads lol.
I have just been reading some more info on the BMA literature. I think we are going to be restricted on who can administer as the individual has to be observed by a clinician for 15 mins following the vac.
I think also with PCN now established there is more flexibility in the system

 

[Tinks]

What's their logic behind this, is it due to safety concerns?

If so then i'm sure that's going to give to anti-vaxers fuel for the fire if the front line staff are turning it down

I have no idea to be honest but some are adamant in that they are not too happy with the speed of the new vac remembering that often these takes years
I do t see how staff can administer this vaccine if they are not vaccinated themselves

 

[Tinks]

wow -70 to -80 is that normal? Is that easily achieved in the distribution chain and storage at surgeries etc?

I don’t think so but the guidelines are clearly saying this is the temp required. Heaven knows how I a, supposed to get round the care homes and vaccinate whilst trying to maintain that temp. It was bad enough with the flu vacs

 

[rigsby]

What's their logic behind this, is it due to safety concerns?

If so then i'm sure that's going to give to anti-vaxers fuel for the fire if the front line staff are turning it down

Look up the US mass vaccination programme of 1976. They stopped it after 25% of the population had been done and have covered up the side effects since.

 

[Member]

Look up the US mass vaccination programme of 1976. They stopped it after 25% of the population had been done and have covered up the side effects since.

Rather than say 'look up something' why don't you explain what your view is and what the evidence is that's informed your view? You've already posted about this before? If you think that we're walking into another situation where an unsafe vaccine is launched, then please let us know why you think that's the case?

I found this a helpful summary of how lessons have been learned:

WHO | Swine flu of 1976: lessons from the past

www.who.int

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

The Pfizer one could be expensive relative to others

If it's as good as their Viagra pills, i'm happy to pay the price!.