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Breadline Britain

I'm pretty sure it's difficult to be both good at economics and politics, they don't seem to naturally align. Economics is about making difficult but objective decisions based on the here and now - mainly about resources. Politics seems to me more ideological, and is about authority and how the state and society relate. Obviously there are overlaps, but there is a reason why economists and politicians tend to be separate groups. A good example is my work for NICE as an economist. I help make decisions about expensive drugs for the NHS based on the costs and benefits they offer. As an economist it's quite pure and mainly based on the optimal distribution of finite resources. However sometimes the politician (the secretary of state, in this case) can overrule the 'no' decision - so to allow expensive Alzheimer's or cancer drugs. The decision seems perverse to an economist, but the politician is considering their relationship with the electorate, personally i call it cheap electioneering with very ill people, however I could understand a patient or family member not complaining - and them being happy a politician 'has their back'.

Many politicians study PPE, so in theory should be good at this.

IMO economics is probably more ideological, as politics tends to be more pragmatic than ideological.

Robin Day was a pompous oaf.Why anybody would want to be like him I've no idea.:unsure:

Good to see Barna doesn't take himself too seriously and is willing to laugh at himself.
 
BarnaBlue;1406637]Scroll back and you'll see I've mentioned at least two major infrastructure projects,high speed rail networks and housing.
And filling in holes....then digging them out again....then filling em back up again.
The answer to your last question is that you can't stop EU labour being used on these projects but you can regulate the use of non-EU labour.
So thats a no then.

As for an answer to your first question, I suggest you read (Nobel Prize Winner in Economics)Paul Krugman's "End this Depression Now!"



He advocates a 1930's style increase in Government spending to create growth,btw.Where does the money come from? The Government prints it.QED.Same as it's doing now actually but instead of giving it directly to the banks you put it in the hands of Joe Public who ]will[/]spend[ ]it[(unlike the banks who are using it to try and wipe out toxic debts imported from the US) and get the economy moving again
Thus causing inflation, making the uk less competitive.
 
Many politicians study PPE, so in theory should be good at this.

IMO economics is probably more ideological, as politics tends to be more pragmatic than ideological.



Good to see Barna doesn't take himself too seriously and is willing to laugh at himself.

Economics and politics clash quite a lot. Left wingers like Keynesian models, right-wingers favour a more Monetarist approach - on the macro side in any case.
 
Many politicians study PPE, so in theory should be good at this.

IMO economics is probably more ideological, as politics tends to be more pragmatic than ideological.

Yeah I think you're right with that. Many politicians study PPE to make it look like they know what they're talking about. I studied economics but definitely don't have a firm grip of macroeconomics.
 
I'm pretty sure it's difficult to be both good at economics and politics, they don't seem to naturally align. Economics is about making difficult but objective decisions based on the here and now - mainly about resources. Politics seems to me more ideological, and is about authority and how the state and society relate. Obviously there are overlaps, but there is a reason why economists and politicians tend to be separate groups. A good example is my work for NICE as an economist. I help make decisions about expensive drugs for the NHS based on the costs and benefits they offer. As an economist it's quite pure and mainly based on the optimal distribution of finite resources. However sometimes the politician (the secretary of state, in this case) can overrule the 'no' decision - so to allow expensive Alzheimer's or cancer drugs. The decision seems perverse to an economist, but the politician is considering their relationship with the electorate, personally i call it cheap electioneering with very ill people, however I could understand a patient or family member not complaining - and them being happy a politician 'has their back'.

You make some good points about the distinction between economics and politics.However in talking about economics you talk about it at the micro rather than the macro level.For an interesting discussion of macro economics and politics see:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
 
I'm pretty sure it's difficult to be both good at economics and politics, they don't seem to naturally align. Economics is about making difficult but objective decisions based on the here and now - mainly about resources. Politics seems to me more ideological, and is about authority and how the state and society relate. Obviously there are overlaps, but there is a reason why economists and politicians tend to be separate groups. A good example is my work for NICE as an economist. I help make decisions about expensive drugs for the NHS based on the costs and benefits they offer. As an economist it's quite pure and mainly based on the optimal distribution of finite resources. However sometimes the politician (the secretary of state, in this case) can overrule the 'no' decision - so to allow expensive Alzheimer's or cancer drugs. The decision seems perverse to an economist, but the politician is considering their relationship with the electorate, personally i call it cheap electioneering with very ill people, however I could understand a patient or family member not complaining - and them being happy a politician 'has their back'.

In Greece, some pharmacies aren't even supplying patients medicine because they are owed so much reimbursement from the government. Complete shambles.
 
You make some good points about the distinction between economics and politics.However in talking about economics you talk about it at the micro rather than the macro level.For an interesting discussion of macro economics and politics see:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'm making some general points but all my applied experience of economics is micro. Obviously I learned a lot of macro when studying but haven't put it into practice.

I've got enough on my reading list at present, thanks.
 
In Greece, some pharmacies aren't even supplying patients medicine because they are owed so much reimbursement from the government. Complete shambles.

Yeah I was reading about that last week. I got the slight hint that it was info from pharma companies, who were making out they were the good guys in letting them continue on treatments and have drugs for 'free'. Naturally I'm a skeptic when it comes to big pharma, but I couldn't quite get a handle on how big the problem in Greece actually was.

Scary times though.
 
Yeah I was reading about that last week. I got the slight hint that it was info from pharma companies, who were making out they were the good guys in letting them continue on treatments and have drugs for 'free'. Naturally I'm a skeptic when it comes to big pharma, but I couldn't quite get a handle on how big the problem in Greece actually was.

Scary times though.

Yeah, let's hope Spain doesn't suffer.
 
In Greece, some pharmacies aren't even supplying patients medicine because they are owed so much reimbursement from the government. Complete shambles.

Increased charges are just about to be introduced here and there is also the same problem with reimbursement of chemists as there is with regard to external suppliers in the education field etc,which I've referred too elsewhere on this thread..
 
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BarnaBlue;1406637]Scroll back and you'll see I've mentioned at least two major infrastructure projects,high speed rail networks and housing.
And filling in holes....then digging them out again....then filling em back up again.
The answer to your last question is that you can't stop EU labour being used on these projects but you can regulate the use of non-EU labour.
So thats a no then.

As for an answer to your first question, I suggest you read (Nobel Prize Winner in Economics)Paul Krugman's "End this Depression Now!"



He advocates a 1930's style increase in Government spending to create growth,btw.Where does the money come from? The Government prints it.QED.Same as it's doing now actually but instead of giving it directly to the banks you put it in the hands of Joe Public who ]will[/]spend[ ]it[(unlike the banks who are using it to try and wipe out toxic debts imported from the US) and get the economy moving again
Thus causing inflation, making the uk less competitive.


Glad to see you've joined in the argument.

The digging/filling in holes idea was a joke.:winking:

"British jobs for British workers" was always a non-starter when the EU specifies free movement of labour between its member countries.

Inflation does not necessarily make the UK less competitive.According to Krugman: "Falling inflation,and even worse,possible deflation,will make recovery from this depression much harder.What we should be aiming for is the opposite:moderately higher inflation,say core inflation of around 4 percent."
 
Same as it's doing now actually but instead of giving it directly to the banks you put it in the hands of Joe Public who will spend it(unlike the banks who are using it to try and wipe out toxic debts imported from the US) and get the economy moving again.

The idea of borrowing to fund investment is quite popular at the moment. This isn't the same thing as a Keynesian fiscal stimulus, which was about increasing consumption rather than investment.

I have concerns about the viability of either though. The point would be to increase aggregate demand and/or employment in the short to medium term. I can't quite get beyond the following:

1. Where will the money come from? The UK may be able to borrow at low rates, but bond markets continue to monitor and punish countries for a lack of fiscal control. People have argued that bond markets shouldn't dictate government policy. If that is the objective then governments shouldn't borrow so much money. The alternative is to print money, and there are two versions: make it clear that the increased money supply will be reversed (which has implications for what people will then do with the money) or don't unwind it in which case, as Napster points out, this is inflationary.

2. What to do with the cash? Assume we can get it, do we send everyone a cheque (as you imply Barna), buy corporate debt to increase liquidity in the corporate sector or fund public investment projects? Sending a cheque to everyone would target consumption spending rather than investment. However, there are two problems. The world has moved in since the 1930s. Globalisation means that some consumption spending would leak outside the UK (the UK giving money to citizens to buy Chinese goods), but the greater problem is that the UK was the most leveraged country in the world in 2008 (government, corporate and household debt). If everyone received £1000, how many would use it to pay back debt? If they did there would be no increase in consumption. All that actually happens is household debt is transferred to the government.

The problem with investment is that it takes a long time to deliver. Again, this is not the 1930s. Planning law has moved on considerably. It takes 3 years to acquire land and planning permission before a construction company can lay the first brick of a housing estate. Large projects, such as HS2 or a new airport, would take 15-20 years. I'm not saying that these aren't worthwhile projects (I think they are) but they won't do any good to short-term growth.

Finally, the employment issue. In the 1930s shovel ready projects were easily staffed by local blue collar labour. The benefits of increased employment flowed through the economy accordingly. However, there was no migration then nor a welfare state. As I have pointed out before, we have a test case in the UK for infastructure investment: the Olympic Park. The borough of Newham hasn't seen a reduction in unemployment or welfare spending as the project has sucked in immigrant labour. The same would happen across the UK.

The UK economy has two problems: the banking system is bust and, for various reasons, long-term trend growth has reduced (a number of economists think the economy's capacity to grow is now about 1% rather than 2.5%). A fiscal stimulus won't fix these problems in the medium term and investment spending is fiddling at the margins in the long-term.
 
Inflation does not necessarily make the UK less competitive.According to Krugman: "Falling inflation,and even worse,possible deflation,will make recovery from this depression much harder.What we should be aiming for is the opposite:moderately higher inflation,say core inflation of around 4 percent."

You're proposing hyperinflation though, Barna. Krugman is talking about moderate inflation that would erode the debt stock as a percentage of GDP over time. I have two problems with this though: the first is that it doesn't often work (UBS had a good paper on this), especially given inflation linked debt instruments.

My bigger objection is consistent with the current Germanic position: it rewards those that have been reckless and punishes the prudent (economists usually refer to this as moral hazard). Those that racked up big debts have them inflated away by government whilst those that saved or on fixed incomes have the value of their assets destroyed. Government is incentivising reckless behaviour.
 
You're proposing hyperinflation though, Barna. Krugman is talking about moderate inflation that would erode the debt stock as a percentage of GDP over time. .

On the contrary, I'm quite happy to accept Paul Krugman's recommendations.He is after all a Nobel Prize Winner in Economics.According to him "all we lack is the political will to take action." Unfortunately, he's quite right.That political will however, will have to change,sooner or later.As Keynes himself was fond of remarking:"In the long run we're all dead."
 
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hmm, that formula thing needs to have a column added for debt, as you could bring home £1000 a month, but if you have debt servicing of £500 a month to pay for example, that would probably significantly adjust how close you are to the breadline.

Someone else has probably already written this, however, i see that an arguement is brewing between Barna and Neil F, and i cant be bothered to read it all, besides which, Neil F will probably win #T10
 
Someone else has probably already written this, however, i see that an arguement is brewing between Barna and Neil F, and i cant be bothered to read it all, besides which, Neil F will probably win #T10

Is that a (hashtag)#T10-I zone or a T10-2 zones card? :unsure: :winking:
 
Having been away for three weeks it is reassuring to find that you lot in The Talking Bollocks Society are alive and well ready to entertain me :winking:
 

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