Exiled Shrimper
Manager
It's easy to see the parallels between Carlisle United being relegated to the National League and our own demise (double relegation, upturn in form at the end of a League Two season under an experienced manager now employed in the National League having coached in the higher echelons of the EFL previously), but there are probably a few differences as well.
For a start, Carlisle's relegation hasn't come towards the end of a 20-year-plus ownership regime, and their American owners have already thrown plenty of money (unsuccessfully) at attempting to stay up. That will continue, although having gone through three changes of manager in 2024/25 as well as replacing their sporting director, you would have to question their judgement. Their squad is already stronger than the one we had when relegated, which was largely youth teamers who were promoted en masse and with little prospect of being able to develop alongside experienced heads, some loanees and others whose careers had been spent in non-league football (the exceptions here are Oxley, Demetriou, White and Dieng).
Nonetheless, the ability Kevin Maher showed to completely revolutionise the culture at our club when he arrived in the autumn of 2021 is hugely under-rated. He almost literally picked people up off the floor, put a smile on their faces and made them proud to wear the shirt again, all against the backdrop of the off-field shenanigans caused by our previous owner. Hughes will have his work cut out trying to replicate the on-field side, because Carlisle have lost 61 of their 102 matches in the past two seasons (comparatively we had lost 53 of 92 at the point of our relegation).
Whilst they might experience a little bit of a culture shock in the National League initially, I expect Carlisle to turn things around at some stage in the season, and probably early enough to be in the hunt for promotion.
I know York City just missed out, falling away towards the end of the campaign as Barnet maintained their pace and eased clear; Barnet were second in 2023/24, well adrift of Chesterfield, and if the Ugglas want to make wholescale changes to strengthen the squad, they will be equipped to do so, albeit I don't feel they need to. York will rightly feel aggrieved with the National League play-off scheduling; as impressive as Oldham were to demolish them, it probably wouldn't've happened had there not been the extended break for the home semi-finalists (the teams had drawn 1-1 on Easter Monday).
Forest Green Rovers, too, I would expect to be strong and their owner will make sure Steve Cotterill is equipped to mount a promotion challenge. When you look at the calibre of some of the players they have released, they can be expected to strengthen. For that reason, I think breaking into the top three will be just as difficult as it was this season (and realistically we were a fair distance away, although we gathered more points than FGR in the second half of the campaign).
Despite their recent takeover, at this point in time I can't see Morecambe mounting a challenge. They've lost 71 of their last 138 league matches, suffering relegation in two of their past three seasons. They've got a big rebuild on their hands, but they'll more than likely take six points off us!
I think Scunthorpe will take some momentum into this season and they could challenge for the play-offs. That club has been through a fair amount of turmoil over the past few years, but they're on a good footing now, are getting decent crowds and I reckon they'll be top half at least.
Boreham Wood might surprise a few as well; they've got a manager in Garrard who is experienced at this level (even if his style of football is frustrating to watch) and they had two play-off campaigns and another top ten finish in the four seasons before they were relegated. For an unfancied team, they punched above their weight and their relegation campaign was a real outlier.
It's hard to assess how Truro City and Brackley Town will go. At this stage I'd be surprised if they didn't struggle, but with some canny recruitment and a bit of fortune, if they can get on a roll they could survive.
My expectation right now is that we'll finish somewhere between third and fifth; I guess like COSU I don't want us to be jumping into the play-offs on the penultimate weekend of the season, and I think if we can bring in a few players to augment the squad we have at the moment with two or three key acquisitions (central centre-back, left wing-back and forward), we'll have our most enjoyable National League season to date.
