Matt the Shrimp
aka Harry Potter
A lot of people on this forum are still stuck in the John Main days...
Perhaps more than most I am one of those who is wont to remind people as to where we have come from in our not-too-recent past. However, I do this not from a sense of nostalgia for what was a dreadful phase in the club's history, but as a reminder that while it takes many years to build a house, the place can burn down overnight.
It is worth remembering that our spell in the bottom flight between 1998 and 2005 - 7 seasons - is the longest spell that our club has spent in the basement division in its entire history. More than that, our club was perhaps the worst prepared for that stint that it has ever been - we plunged straight into the bottom flight having only just shed (and probably still paying off) the likes of Boere (reportedly on £3,500 a week back then - when we were getting barely 4,000 through the gates), bloated with a squad in the 30s (we used 37 players that season) and carrying the wages of Stimson, Keith Dublin, Newman (all ex-Prem), Morely, Conlon (both Man City players)... and then some really sh*t players on top of that!
:thump:
I don't recount these details in the perverse glorification or hankering after that period; instead, I remind everyone of that period in order to emphasise how very deeply in the brown-stuff we were for such a long time.
This club endured perhaps as much as 9 years of epic failure - the wheels were already coming off during our last season in what is now the Championship. At one point, players' wages alone were 123% of the club's turnover - never mind stadium costs, police costs, depreciation of fixed assets etc. etc. In truth, this club has only been tasting success since Ron Martin had the extraordinary good fortune - and a smidge of good judgement - to appoint Steve Tilson as manager in Oct/Nov 2004. That means that this club has only been on the up again for somewhere between 3-4 years. As you said yourself:
...[W]e all know that football goes in cycles. We have had a good spell, and are probably at the start of a poor one, the trick is to make the good ones a lot longer than the bad.
...and you're not wrong about that. At the moment, our current "good" phase - and we are in a good phase, even now (relatively speaking!) - has only been slightly over half the length of the preceding bad phase. Yes, we were supposed to be aiming for "8 through the gate" - and we have now achieved that - but we've only had that for 3 seasons now. The current boon time is still only chipping away at the mountain of debt and problems we built up for ourselves from 1996 onwwards.
People keep asking why Ron doesn't open his chequebook - in the presumption that we have vast untapped riches that we put away during the last couple of years on which we should now be drawing. Personally, I've always presumed that the club was essentially still broke. The Tilson regime began with the club at least £4m in debt - and perhaps more than that. As successful as we've been under Tilly, we haven't got close to wiping that debt out. Since then, Ron had to shell out another substantial wedge to buy out Delancey in order to gain sole control of the club. Conservatively, that must mean that Ron has leveraged another £4m against the club's "assets" (noting, in fact, that the club owns half of b*gger all). That means that, somewhere in its books and amongst its byzantine structure, the club has c. £8m of debt kicking around. In that context, you can see why the chequebook hasn't been opened too often.
* * *
We are a bigger and better club now than when we were in the John Main days - of that there is no question. We have greater potential and we have, consequentially, greater expectation. We should not consider ourselves arrogant if we think that relegation to League Two ought to be beyond the pale. As a club, we should be in the top half of League One and eyeing up promotion to the Championship.
However, we must remember that our means do not always match our ambitions. We pawned the family silver (Roots Hall, B&L) a long time ago, and it should be remembered that the club is currently being run by the pawnbroker. I still have absolutely no idea whatsoever where the club is supposed to be getting the funding from to build FF - in the current climate, I rather suspect that there are precisely no banks queueing up at all to provide us with a single penny of funding, which is why all of the fanfare as to the club's future at B&L is now a hollow echo. We might get some token bulldozers rolling around in the fields at B&L for a bit of PR, but I would be gobsmacked if funding were properly in place to allow substantial progress on the new site much before Q4 2010.
As a financial proposition, this club is still far more about future potential than current worth or viability. Take a look at the Ricoh & Liberty Arenas, the St. Mary's and Madejski Stadiums, and you'll realise that Championship has moved on a hell of a lot in recent years - struggling, as it is, to keep pace with the Premiership. I thought the stat that placed us 50th in the country in our current home was very telling indeed. That puts us 6th in League One - exactly where we finished last season, and the place where (optimistically) most of us thought we would be aiming for this season.
At the moment, we're 8 places below par - struggling to sign players and to sort out the gaps in the side because we're currently penny-pinching in an attempt to convince the banks that we have plenty of spare cash in order to service the (in all likelihood) punishing repayment schedule which we will need to enter into in order to finance the new stadium. However, given how tight the purse-strings appear to be, at the moment, you'd have to say that being only 8 places below where we should be is a pretty darn stellar effort by our manager, particularly where two of our best players (Freedman, Barnard) have been unfit for the best part of 2 months.
This season has been pretty disappointing thus far. But those advocating a change of manager would surely be committing as gross an act of footballing hara-kiri as we would have seen at Roots Hall since the promotion of Ronnie Whelan to the managerial hotseat back in 1995. Only those who really were hankering after a return to the John Main days would suggest getting rid of Tilson right now.
This season isn't over yet... it's all about the fight for 6th place. Let's see if we can do it - and if anyone can get us there, Tilly can.
UTB!
Matt