Theresa May - Dead woman walking?

[Shrimpers are Magic]

Thatcher won her no confidence vote and then quit 2 days later. Rees-Mogg would probably see that as a standard being set.

that's my thinking as well - don't remember the numbers in the Thatcher vote though.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Just googled Jeremy Corbyn (according to Wiki)

Corbyn lost a no vote of confidence by 172 against to 40 in favour in 2016. He seems to be still hanging on in there. So you never know.

The difference is he was voted in by the members. The MPs at that point didn't want him, they were shocked that he won and so forced a second leadership election - which he won by more. Since then they managed a nearly universal agreement on a manifesto and then despite all of that recent infighting Labour under Corbyn took 40%. No realistic threats to him now, he will definitely be fighting the next GE as leader.

May got through the leadership process by a mixture of getting through the MP voting rounds and her rivals dropping out. By default is a bit harsh, but she got a few bys. But up until she called the snap election she was very popular with Tory MPs, membership and the public. Her downfall has been her own policy and ability.

Corbyn has effectively defied the low expectations of him that lead to an early no confidence vote and he grew from that, May has effectively defied the high expectations of her that lead to a comparatively late confidence vote in her that she is unlikely to move on from.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

that's my thinking as well - don't remember the numbers in the Thatcher vote though.

55% in her favour apparently.

 

[Shrimpers are Magic]

Closer than May's then but I thought anything over a hundred against could see her go.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Closer than May's then but I thought anything over a hundred against could see her go.

she seems to ignore all protocol, the contempt of Parliament followed by cancelling a vote at 24 hours notice after a 2 year build up - if she thinks she can brush those off maybe in her mind this is a mild irritatant

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Since Theresa May called a General Election 3 years early despite her party having recently introduced fixed term Parliaments - if you compare manifestos, election campaigns, and then conduct and policy over the 18 months that have followed 'most people' will not be fearing media claims that Labour would be inefficient and shambolic because we are living through the most extreme versions of that with the Tories.
Cameron used that mantra of vote for be to avoid the chaos of Miliband and May used vote for meto avoid the chaos of Corbyn. All we got was the chaos of Cameron and May. That.....project fear....doesn't wash when the thing you warn against is actually happening here and now with the current lot.

The border seemingly trumps everything else for DUP.

It should be remembered that they do what they do and have been happily existing without significant power in the UK Parliament. She went to them not the other way around. When they signed up with her they seemingly gave nothing away. What they need to give away now to keep backing her is too much to ask.

Nigel Dodds said two days ago that they have no fear about what would come with a Labour government and that on current policy Labour are more Unionist than the Tories.

If the DUP are being truthful then they genuinely are prepared to vote down this government.

Oh dear. You’ve slipped up there and betrayed that you haven’t actually been paying attention but rather ploughing away at your keyboard putting your views forward and shoehorning things to fit.

The DUP don’t give a toss about the border with the Republic. What matters to them is the Union with Great Britain, the maintaining of exactly the same economic and customs arrangements with the UK and, finally, as a Brexit supporting party - Brexit. Their issue with the backstop is that it harms these things. They really could not care less about the border.

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Oh dear. You’ve slipped up there and betrayed that you haven’t actually been paying attention but rather ploughing away at your keyboard putting your views forward and shoehorning things to fit.

The DUP don’t give a toss about the border with the Republic. What matters to them is the Union with Great Britain, the maintaining of exactly the same economic and customs arrangements with the UK and, finally, as a Brexit supporting party - Brexit. Their issue with the backstop is that it harms these things. They really could not care less about the border.

This evening everyone is discussing sensibly and learning from each other - don't be the one who turns it into a battle eh?

DUP care very much about the border as their interpretation of the dangers of May's deal is that the border could effectively be in the Irish Sea. That is their big red line. So I have been paying attention after all.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

This evening everyone is discussing sensibly and learning from each other - don't be the one who turns it into a battle eh?

DUP care very much about the border as their interpretation of the dangers of May's deal is that the border could effectively be in the Irish Sea. That is their big red line. So I have been paying attention after all.

Not really. The ‘border in the Irish Sea’ is a catchphrase to encapsulate the issues I drew attention to - necessary in this time of wall to wall (yet poorer quality) news media. It’s a casual inaccuracy to quote it as the real issue, particularly when there is a real border on the island of Ireland that the DUP’s opponents are using as leverage

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

Not really. The ‘border in the Irish Sea’ is a catchphrase to encapsulate the issues I drew attention to - necessary in this time of wall to wall (yet poorer quality) news media. It’s a casual inaccuracy to quote it as the real issue, particularly when there is a real border on the island of Ireland that the DUP’s opponents are using as leverage

I'm not sure the DUP would be appeased by being told the border in the Irish Sea is just a catchphrase. If Mrs May went in with that angle I'm sure their intention to vote against her deal would become a rock solid resolve.

 

[rigsby]

Here's why the DUP will never support corbyn They speak around the 5 minute mark

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVvca2SEvqo

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I'm not sure the DUP would be appeased by being told the border in the Irish Sea is just a catchphrase. If Mrs May went in with that angle I'm sure their intention to vote against her deal would become a rock solid resolve.

Eh? That was me explaining it to you. A bit different! The PM would clearly be discussing the specifics - the ones I listed - not quoting from the Daily Mirror.

 

[OldBlueLady]

Liked that all the way up to Boris

Didn't say that was what I'd do, but what they would probably end up doing! Still think he'll end up leader at some point.

If I could have a free choice of Tories to take charge right now, it would be to invite William Hague back. I just don't see anyone who can sort this mess out.

 

[Ricky Otto]

Didn't say that was what I'd do, but what they would probably end up doing! Still think he'll end up leader at some point.

If I could have a free choice of Tories to take charge right now, it would be to invite William Hague back. I just don't see anyone who can sort this mess out.

Yeah I got that, just can't think of much worse than Boris! Only JRM!

Boris' brother would be OK, he'd be coming from a long way behind if the bookies are to be believed though. Think I'd go with Javid as people have mentioned on here before, I'd at least trust him to do what's best for the economy

William Hague is 150/1 to be next Conservative leader, to put that in context Farage is 100/1!

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

ERG are in a strange position now. May is still in place, is safe from internal forces for a year, and has stated she will see Brexit through to completion.

Labour will call a vote of no confidence in the government after May's deal finally reaches Parliament. I wonder if ERG would vote against the government. That sounds extreme but if May stays the possibility of no Brexit is high and (from their perspective) wrong style of Brexit is high.
With a GE they could try to get Johnson in as leader and no deal Brexit as a manifesto promise,

Leaving the EU is of massive importance to these people so unlikely scenarios become possibilities.

 

[MK Shrimper]

With a GE they could try to get Johnson in as leader and no deal Brexit as a manifesto promise,

Leaving the EU is of massive importance to these people so unlikely scenarios become possibilities.

There are plenty of Tory voters who see the madness of a No Deal. If they go down that route they'll get hammered.

 

[Tangled up in Blue]

that's my thinking as well - don't remember the numbers in the Thatcher vote though.

She got 204 votes,compared to May's 200.Tories,hey!

 

[Another Surrey Shrimper]

There are plenty of Tory voters who see the madness of a No Deal. If they go down that route they'll get hammered.

Let's hope so!
No deal Brexit has a purity and straightforward feel to it. I wouldn't be surprised if two years of going round in circles has convinced more Leavers that no deal is the way forward.

 

[OldBlueLady]

Let's hope so!
No deal Brexit has a purity and straightforward feel to it. I wouldn't be surprised if two years of going round in circles has convinced more Leavers that no deal is the way forward.

Au contraire, it's convinced a lot of us that we were more right than ever to push to get out of the EU.

 

[MK Shrimper]

Au contraire, it's convinced a lot of us that we were more right than ever to push to get out of the EU.

It's not the EU's fault that continual Brexit Ministers ****ed up. I mean they only had 2 years to sort it out after all and I'm sure they know that there's sea between Dover & Calais.

 

[rigsby]

Au contraire, it's convinced a lot of us that we were more right than ever to push to get out of the EU.

As the zones very own peoples vote poll proves. The good thing is people like me either don't vote on a poll or tell them the opposite if it is some naff survey. The shock of their defeat is far more fun.