Southend United and the mathematics of the remainder of season 2012/13

[southend_aussies]

Not sure if this has been done, but thought it might be good to outline what exactly is needed to achieve playoffs.

Here is the scenario:

Southend United - 9th on 55 points with 7 games remaining.

POINT AVAILABLE - 21


Here are the scenario's if Southend United get 21 points:

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (76 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 10 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 11 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 12

Exeter would need 14

Rotherham would need 16

Fleetwood would need to get 19

FOR PLAYOFFS 5 OR FEWER TEAMS NEED TO BEAT US:


If Southend get 19 points (6 wins 1 draw)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (74 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 8 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 9 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 10

Exeter would need 12

Rotherham would need 14

Fleetwood would need to get 17

We'd also need Bradford to not get 21 or Chesterfield to get 21.

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.


If Southend get 18 points (6 wins and 1 loss)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (73 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 7 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 8 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 9

Exeter would need 11

Rotherham would need 13

Fleetwood would need to get 16

We'd also need Bradford to not get 20 or Chesterfield to get 21.

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.


If Southend get 17 points (5 wins and 2 draws)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (72 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 6 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 7 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 8

Exeter would need 10

Rotherham would need 12

Fleetwood would need to get 15

We'd also need Oxford to not get 18 points, Bradford to get 19, Chesterfield to get 20, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 21

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 16 points (5 wins and 1 draw and 1 loss)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (71 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 5 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 6 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 7

Exeter would need 9

Rotherham would need 11

Fleetwood would need to get 14

We'd also need Oxford to not get 17 points, Bradford to get 18, Chesterfield to get 19, Bristol Rovers to get 21

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.


If Southend get 15 points (5 wins and 2 losses)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (70 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 4 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 5 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 6

Exeter would need 8

Rotherham would need 10

Fleetwood would need to get 13

We'd also need Oxford to not get 16 points, Bradford to get 17, Chesterfield to get 18, Bristol Rovers to get 20

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 14 points (4 wins and 2 draws 1 loss)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (69 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 3 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 4 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 5

Exeter would need 7

Rotherham would need 9

Fleetwood would need to get 12

We'd also need Oxford to not get 15 points, Bradford to get 16, Chesterfield to get 17, Bristol Rovers to get 19,

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 13 points (4 wins 1 draw 2 losses)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (68 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 2 points to beat us

Burton would need to get 3 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 4

Exeter would need 6

Rotherham would need 8

Fleetwood would need to get 11

We'd also need Oxford to not get 14 points, Bradford to get 15, Chesterfield to get 16, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 18,

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 12 points (4 wins 3 losses)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (67 is the magic number)

Port Vale would need to get 1 point to beat us

Burton would need to get 2 points

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 3

Exeter would need 5

Rotherham would need 7

Fleetwood would need to get 10

We'd also need Oxford to not get 13 points, Bradford to get 14, Chesterfield to get 15, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 17,

PLAYOFFS we'd need 5 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 11 points (3 wins 2 draws 2 losses)

AUTO PROMOTION AND PLAYOFFS: (66 is the magic number)

Burton would need to get 1 point to beat us

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 2

Exeter would need 4

Rotherham would need 6

Fleetwood would need to get 9

We'd also need Oxford to not get 12 points, Bradford to get 13, Chesterfield to get 14, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 16, Wycombe to get 18

PLAYOFFS we'd need 4 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 10 points (3 wins 1 draws 3 losses)

(65 is the magic number)

Northampton and Cheltenham would need to get 1

Exeter would need 2

Rotherham would need 4

Fleetwood would need to get 8

We'd also need Oxford to not get 11 points, Bradford to get 12, Chesterfield to get 13, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 15, Wycombe to get 17, Dagenham and Rochdale to get 18

PLAYOFFS we'd need 3 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 9 points (3 wins 4 losses)

(64 is the magic number)

Exeter would need 1

Rotherham would need 3

Fleetwood would need to get 7

We'd also need Oxford to not get 10 points, Bradford to get 11, Chesterfield to get 12, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 14, Wycombe to get 16, Dagenham and Rochdale to get 17, Torquay to get 18

PLAYOFFS we'd need 1 or less of these teams to get those points.

If Southend get 8 points (2 wins 2 draws 3 losses)

(63 is the magic number)

Rotherham would need 2 points

Fleetwood would need to get 6

We'd also need Oxford to not get 9 points, Bradford to get 10, Chesterfield to get 11, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 13, Wycombe to get 15, Dagenham and Rochdale to get 16, Torquay to get 17

NONE OF THESE CAN HAPPEN FOR SOUTHEND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS:

If Southend get 7 points (2 wins 1 draws 4 losses)

(62 is the magic number)

Rotherham would need 1 point

Fleetwood would need to get 5

We'd also need Oxford to not get 8 points, Bradford to get 9, Chesterfield to get 10, Morecambe and Bristol Rovers to get 12, Wycombe to get 14, Dagenham and Rochdale to get 15, Torquay to get 16, Barnet to get 18

NONE OF THESE CAN HAPPEN FOR SOUTHEND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS:

IF SOUTHEND GET 6 POINTS OR LESS - THEY CAN NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS:



THIS WILL BE UPDATED EVERY GAME UNTIL SOUTHEND ARE MATHEMATICALLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

 

[Shrimper]

Basically, even if we win all our games there's a high chance we won't make it.

 

[WickfordShrimper]

I love it...

 

[southend_aussies]

Basically, even if we win all our games there's a high chance we won't make it.

That's the vibe I got as well too. However, Port Vale and Cheltenham, Fleetwood play Gills and Us, Cheltenham play Northampton, Exeter play Rochdale and Gills play Rotherham in the next two days. This could shake all this up nicely for us or completely destroy us.

 

[southend_aussies]

Will update this after the last four matches tomorrow but we definitely need to win against Fleetwood otherwise it's all over.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Great maths, but we can't get 18 points now from the 7 games, so that scenario can come off :winking:

 

[Angell Delight]

I've been researching the possibilities and I think you'll find the following makes interesting reading:


We can't make it. It's over.

 

[McNasty]

Let's hope the manager can start looking and planning for next season without the added pressure of winning our last 6 games.

 

[undercovershrimper]

Will be intresting to see if Brown can get this lot playing at home

 

[Stuart W]

I am sure we will **** it up in the winnable games, but just look who Cheltenham have in their last 5 games...
Gillingham, Northampton, Exeter, Plymouth and Bradford City. I would expect them to get no more than 6 pts from that lot, leaving us to ONLY requiring 15 out of 18 pts. Worth a trip to the bookies on Monday???:unsure::unsure:

 

[Mick]

I am sure we will **** it up in the winnable games, but just look who Cheltenham have in their last 5 games...
Gillingham, Northampton, Exeter, Plymouth and Bradford City. I would expect them to get no more than 6 pts from that lot, leaving us to ONLY requiring 15 out of 18 pts. Worth a trip to the bookies on Monday???:unsure::unsure:

.... and to do better than Fleetwood, Chesterfield and Bradford City.

We're an ungenerous 9/2 for a top 7 finish.

 

[Codeyejax]

Mick that's a short price mate

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Will be intresting to see if Brown can get this lot playing at home

Sturrock had us winning away. Brown hasn't managed that yet. Let's hope he get get us to win at home too.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Sturrock had us winning away. Brown hasn't managed that yet. Let's hope he get get us to win at home too.

Give it a rest

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Give it a rest

Very valid point I think you will find. We have a good away record, we won at Port Vale recently and to throw away a 2 goal lead yesterday is very disappointing when Brown was brought in and his first task is to get us into the play-offs. I hope we win on Monday, I really do but yesterday's draw wasn't altogether inspiring was it.

 

[Danshrimper]

Very valid point I think you will find. We have a good away record, we won at Port Vale recently and to throw away a 2 goal lead yesterday is very disappointing when Brown was brought in and his first task is to get us into the play-offs. I hope we win on Monday, I really do but yesterday's draw wasn't altogether inspiring was it.

Sturrock wasn't even there when we beat Port Vale away, Coughlan won us that game not Sturrock.

 

[davewebbsbrain]

Sturrock wasn't even there when we beat Port Vale away, Coughlan won us that game not Sturrock.

Sturrock was ***** then....good job he went eh?

 

[wally4pm]

Why is everyone tormenting themselves? The play offs are over as far as we are concerned. We have as much chance as getting into the play offs as RM has of being nominated Chairman of the year. Look forward to next Sunday and we'll start all over again next season. Win last 6 league games? Doubt if we'll even win 3. Sorry but look at our form. If we were a horse they'd put us down.

Wemberlee.....................

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

Very valid point I think you will find. We have a good away record, we won at Port Vale recently and to throw away a 2 goal lead yesterday is very disappointing when Brown was brought in and his first task is to get us into the play-offs. I hope we win on Monday, I really do but yesterday's draw wasn't altogether inspiring was it.

4 Wins, 3 Draws, 8 Defeats since boxing day - 15 points from 15 games Sturrock's record - That would put us bottom of the table over a 46 game season.

NOT EXACTLY INSPIRING WAS IT

 

[southend_aussies]

If Exeter, Fleetwood and Burton all lose today, hope is not all lost.