Play-Offs

[Seaside Shrimper]

I think we should all stop trying to give an optimistic outlook on the points needed for a playoff spot.
Because we ain’t going to get a playoff spot as we just aren’t good enough this season. Maybe next season with some better recruitment.
With all honesty can anybody say it’s been good? Surely mediocre at best. But what do I know following and supporting the club the past 58 years. Roll on next season

Stop trying to be optimistic is an absolutely wild thing to say. I don't think football is for you.

 

[Blues4LifeDan]

I know "a few" fellow supporters have been a bit glum about how this season has gone, on the pitch. I am still very much in the "glad we have a team to support" camp, having only moved back to the area permanently just before the start of this current season, so I bought a season ticket for the first time in about 15 years, due to living the other side of the country. I enjoy the whole experience, of the walk to the Hall with a friend, watching the match with my cousin whilst we catch up on life, chatting to others in the stand around me, etc. The football is important but it is not the be all and end all. I can see why most people think we will not make the play-offs, and most days I share that view. BUT I still note a few things on the form side.

Here's the top 12 in the current form guide over the last ten matches, from The Fishy site:

View attachment 35967

Only two teams in the division have more points than us over the last ten games, which in our case has included 5 matches against other sides in the top 12, with wins over Halifax (2nd in the recent form guide), Altrincham (6th) and Aldershot (8th), and draws against Rochdale (7th) and Tamworth (11th). Only Barnet and Aldershot have scored more goals in their last 10 matches. Only Barnet have a better goal difference over the last 10 matches.

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Sometimes, from the gloom and despondency on here, you would think we are in 20th position, and have not won in 13 games. I think it was Chris Millington, the Halifax manager who remarked on the strange murmurings coming from some of the Southend fans, in his remarks to the press after we beat them 3-1 back in January, to add to the 2-0 away win earlier in the season.

I thought I would look at the form guide a bit more. I think we can safely give up on the top 3 spots, haha, so here is the table from 4th down to 12th, showing the teams alongside games played and current points, as well as points per game in the last ten matches (as per The Fishy table); a projection of the points teams may gain in their remaining games based on current PPG over the last ten matches; the projected total points; and the projected position. That still has Southend finishing in 9th position, as they are at present, so that is probably quite realistic.

Pos	Team	Played	Pts	Pts, last 10	Ppg, last 10	Projected pts	Total pts	Proj'd pos'n
4	Oldham	37	62	14	1.4	12.6	74.6	6
5	Gateshead	36	60	13	1.3	13	73	8
6	Halifax	35	59	20	2	22	81	4
7	Rochdate	33	55	16	1.6	20.8	75.8	5
8	Altrincham	35	55	17	1.7	18.7	73.7	7
9	Southend	36	52	19	1.9	19	71	9
10	Eastleigh	37	52	14	1.4	12.6	64.6	10
11	Tamworth	37	48	14	1.4	12.6	60.6	12
12	Sutton	35	47	13	1.3	14.3	61.3	11

BUT, and it is a big but, but then again, I am an optimist, I like big buts, I cannot lie....

This Saturday, we play Forest Green Rovers, in 3rd - no home defeats this season yet, surely they are due one. And we still have to play Eastleigh and Sutton below us, but more significantly, Oldham and Gateshead above us. Both of the latter teams are in indifferent form. IF we could get say 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 matches, the position would look quite interesting, especially as April looks a bit easier.

Oh, and one last thing. IF we win on Saturday, we will only be 2 points behind where we were last season, using both Billericay Blue's "opponents" comparison and Smiffy's matchday comparison in the 2024/25 compared to 2023/24 thread, in terms of points gained and ignoring the ten point deduction. So effectively we would be 8 points net better off when taking the deduction into consideration. We had a strong finish last season, and missed out on the play-offs by 6 points, although I strongly suspect we will need more than the 71 points which was sufficient to place Halifax in 7th spot last year.

MAYBE I am slightly delusional. You may think there are far too many BUTs, IFs and MAYBEs in this post. BUT - I enjoy living life hopefully. If we don't do it this season, then there is always next season, and this time last year, that looked incredibly unlikely.

Up the Blues.

This perfectly sums up how I feel. I can't understand why some fans don't see it.

It's taken COSU until this point to start making things look really good off the field, and it's no coincidence it's taken until this point for us to see things look better on the field too. Things take time. Particularly when you are rebuilding an entire club. It was never as simple as just signing a few players to fill the squad and suddenly be top 3 challengers. The rebuild was/is enormous, but we are getting there.

The first half of the season was all about stabilising the club, both off of it and on it. The second half of the season has really started to showcase what is to come. Again, both on and off the pitch. This group of players (with many agreeing changes are needed) have produced playoff form from January onwards. That's because they are now fully match fit and match sharp and have got to know eachother. Had this group had a full preseason, in normal circumstances, we'd be comfortably in the playoffs. All from a team that many of us agree needs improving.

Those improvements will happen in the summer and we will have a new, shiny training ground with a proper preseason in place too. That will make us a serious force to be reckoned with. The stadium will undoubtedly be improved over the summer too. Things are looking up and even if we miss out on the playoffs, the club is a million times better off than last season when we were parking vans over drains. Everything is looking forward and up, the collective fanbase needs to do the same. Utb!

 

[GBJ]

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Great post.

It’s almost as if the hindered beginning of our season, coupled with losing two of our best players in August, played a far bigger part in our slow season start than some are prepared to give credit for.

As you rightly point out, our improvement across the season has been in keeping with our year-on-year improvements and whilst our final points tally will almost certainly not topple last season’s, the signs are good for next year… and personally, I don’t think we’ll need to discuss playoffs next season anyway .

 

[Barling Magna]

I think the points required will be at least 75.

That means we have to get at least 7 wins and 2 draws with only one loss or 8 wins.

Since we are Southend United I can see us having a good winning run going into the final game of the season against Gateshead just needing a draw and......... of course......losing. Finishing in 8th place with 74 points.

 

[Alexshrimper]

Kev will revert from 4-3-3 to 3-5-2, we will pass to the half way line and then slow things down. We will get crosses into the box and Kev will bemoan the amount of ‘chances’ we missed. People will back him by saying we would have been over run in midfield.

 

[londonblue]

I know "a few" fellow supporters have been a bit glum about how this season has gone, on the pitch. I am still very much in the "glad we have a team to support" camp, having only moved back to the area permanently just before the start of this current season, so I bought a season ticket for the first time in about 15 years, due to living the other side of the country. I enjoy the whole experience, of the walk to the Hall with a friend, watching the match with my cousin whilst we catch up on life, chatting to others in the stand around me, etc. The football is important but it is not the be all and end all. I can see why most people think we will not make the play-offs, and most days I share that view. BUT I still note a few things on the form side.

Here's the top 12 in the current form guide over the last ten matches, from The Fishy site:

View attachment 35967

Only two teams in the division have more points than us over the last ten games, which in our case has included 5 matches against other sides in the top 12, with wins over Halifax (2nd in the recent form guide), Altrincham (6th) and Aldershot (8th), and draws against Rochdale (7th) and Tamworth (11th). Only Barnet and Aldershot have scored more goals in their last 10 matches. Only Barnet have a better goal difference over the last 10 matches.

We are undoubtedly playing catch-up, but if we look at the season in terms of chunks of matches, we gained 14 points from our first 12 matches, 16 points from our next 12 matches, and 22 points from the last 12, so we have been steadily improving throughout the season. In our last 18 league games, we have 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats.

Sometimes, from the gloom and despondency on here, you would think we are in 20th position, and have not won in 13 games. I think it was Chris Millington, the Halifax manager who remarked on the strange murmurings coming from some of the Southend fans, in his remarks to the press after we beat them 3-1 back in January, to add to the 2-0 away win earlier in the season.

I thought I would look at the form guide a bit more. I think we can safely give up on the top 3 spots, haha, so here is the table from 4th down to 12th, showing the teams alongside games played and current points, as well as points per game in the last ten matches (as per The Fishy table); a projection of the points teams may gain in their remaining games based on current PPG over the last ten matches; the projected total points; and the projected position. That still has Southend finishing in 9th position, as they are at present, so that is probably quite realistic.

Pos	Team	Played	Pts	Pts, last 10	Ppg, last 10	Projected pts	Total pts	Proj'd pos'n
4	Oldham	37	62	14	1.4	12.6	74.6	6
5	Gateshead	36	60	13	1.3	13	73	8
6	Halifax	35	59	20	2	22	81	4
7	Rochdate	33	55	16	1.6	20.8	75.8	5
8	Altrincham	35	55	17	1.7	18.7	73.7	7
9	Southend	36	52	19	1.9	19	71	9
10	Eastleigh	37	52	14	1.4	12.6	64.6	10
11	Tamworth	37	48	14	1.4	12.6	60.6	12
12	Sutton	35	47	13	1.3	14.3	61.3	11

BUT, and it is a big but, but then again, I am an optimist, I like big buts, I cannot lie....

This Saturday, we play Forest Green Rovers, in 3rd - no home defeats this season yet, surely they are due one. And we still have to play Eastleigh and Sutton below us, but more significantly, Oldham and Gateshead above us. Both of the latter teams are in indifferent form. IF we could get say 2 wins and a draw from the next 3 matches, the position would look quite interesting, especially as April looks a bit easier.

Oh, and one last thing. IF we win on Saturday, we will only be 2 points behind where we were last season, using both Billericay Blue's "opponents" comparison and Smiffy's matchday comparison in the 2024/25 compared to 2023/24 thread, in terms of points gained and ignoring the ten point deduction. So effectively we would be 8 points net better off when taking the deduction into consideration. We had a strong finish last season, and missed out on the play-offs by 6 points, although I strongly suspect we will need more than the 71 points which was sufficient to place Halifax in 7th spot last year.

MAYBE I am slightly delusional. You may think there are far too many BUTs, IFs and MAYBEs in this post. BUT - I enjoy living life hopefully. If we don't do it this season, then there is always next season, and this time last year, that looked incredibly unlikely.

Up the Blues.

All that begs just 2 questions:

1. Does your friend **** you off so much that you end up ditching him/her and sitting with your cousin?
2. Does your cousin **** you off so much that you can't stand to walk to Roots Hall with him/her?

 

[Bar na bas]

All that begs just 2 questions:

1. Does your friend **** you off so much that you end up ditching him/her and sitting with your cousin?
2. Does your cousin **** you off so much that you can't stand to walk to Roots Hall with him/her?

The short answers are no and no.

The longer answers are that my friend lives in the same road but he has a season ticket several rows behind me and my cousin in the South Upper so I generally have a brief first half analysis with him and then on the walk home unless he leaves right on the final whistle whereas my cousin and I wait to applaud the team. My cousin drives from 20 miles away.

Those “just two questions” were far easier to answer than ask me for my points prediction but I think we will fall just short which will be frustrating given some of the draws which could have been wins, some of which have been in part due to some dubious referring decisions. Eg a couple of strange disallowed goals and more recently, I and a fair few around me in the South Upper were convinced we should have had a penalty for a foul when 2-1 up against Woking, and they went up the field and equalised shortly afterwards.

Still, anything can happen in the next couple of months so I will carry on watching and cheering…

 

[Rattus Norvegicus]

Above.

"..... some of the draws which could have been wins......."

A good brief summary of the position as I see it.