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NFL Draft

What (or I suppose, where) is CST?

Commiserations to Seth. To trade up to reach once is bad enough, to do it twice in the first round. Ouch.

The highlight was watching Joe Haden (and his mother) cry at the news he was going to Cleveland. You can't blame him, I'd cry too if I had to play for the Browns.

The big non-Tebow (yawn) surprise was the Jags.

I am actually not overly upset about the Broncos drafting Tebow. Sure it was a massive reach but as many commentators have pointed out McDaniels has staked his reputation to this guy. So basically it is a win-win situation. Either Tebow pans out and the Broncos become play-off contenders or he tanks and McDaniels gets fired. Honestly either one is fine by me.
 
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Chaps - thanks for the v. comprehensive answers on that!

Can anyone give me an idiot's guide to the draft? In my "back of postage stamp" understanding of it, I had believed that (in the first round of the draft), the team with the poorest record in the NFL got the first draft in the first round, all the way through to the Superbowl Champs who get the 32nd draft. Is that essentially right?

If so, here are the questions:

1. How many rounds are there in the draft?
2. Does the above system - worst team to best team - apply in each of the rounds of the draft?
3. How does one work out the "math" of a trade? If a team (such as the Broncos) trade up in the first round of the draft, how do you work out what they have to trade away in return?
4. Did lots of teams trade this year?
5. Has a team ever traded away a first pick of the first round before?
6. Is there any evidence that trading up in the draft brings success?

Sorry - lots of questions there!

One other question: presumably, senior players can be traded from one franchise to another, just like a football transfer between clubs. If so, what sort of transfer fees get paid for said players? Have there been any big transfers who have flopped; or any free transfers who have been a huge success at their new club?

Matt
 
From my rather basic understanding of player trading, Money doesn't exchange hands. Players are traded for other players if teams have a shortfalling in one position or they wish to make room within their salary cap, although it's probably more common to trade for draft picks.
 
Chaps - thanks for the v. comprehensive answers on that!

Can anyone give me an idiot's guide to the draft? In my "back of postage stamp" understanding of it, I had believed that (in the first round of the draft), the team with the poorest record in the NFL got the first draft in the first round, all the way through to the Superbowl Champs who get the 32nd draft. Is that essentially right?

If so, here are the questions:

1. How many rounds are there in the draft?
2. Does the above system - worst team to best team - apply in each of the rounds of the draft?
3. How does one work out the "math" of a trade? If a team (such as the Broncos) trade up in the first round of the draft, how do you work out what they have to trade away in return?
4. Did lots of teams trade this year?
5. Has a team ever traded away a first pick of the first round before?
6. Is there any evidence that trading up in the draft brings success?

Sorry - lots of questions there!

One other question: presumably, senior players can be traded from one franchise to another, just like a football transfer between clubs. If so, what sort of transfer fees get paid for said players? Have there been any big transfers who have flopped; or any free transfers who have been a huge success at their new club?

Matt

You're right to assume that the order of the draft is determined by the record of each team from the previous season, and this order is retained throughout all seven rounds of the draft. The Superbowl winner will always pick last, even if they didn't have the best win/loss record.

There is no set formula regarding the 'math' of a trade - I suppose it's really a matter of market forces, and how badly a particualr coach/GM wants a particular player. Mike Ditka nearly destroyed the Saints franchise by giving up his entire draft for Ricky Williams, whilst the Dallas Cowboys built a dynasty on the huge amount of compensatory picks they got for Herschell Walker. Some trades just look awful at first glance, for example, the Redskins received a fouth round pick in the 2012 (described by ESPN analyst Mel Kiper as the 'proverbial bag of used footballs') for QB Jason Campbell, who will probably be Oakland's starter this year. However, Campbell had very little market value because it was clear that Washington didn't really want him after acquiring Donovan McNabb. Most teams felt that Campbell would eventually be released and be available for nothing, so the Redskins had to take the first offer they could. Another example of this was the Steelers' trade of former Superbowl MVP Santonio Holmes to the Jets for a fifth round pick - Pittsburgh had made it clear that they didn't want Holmes on their team due to character issues so jettisoned him at a price way below market value.

I don't think the volume of trades was particularly high this year, and it was a little disappointing for the TV viewers that none of the top five picks changed hands on the day, which always makes for some great drama. The very first pick has been traded on a few occasions, but in recent memory, these trades have been forced on the team that was in the top spot. John Elway made it clear that he didn't want to play for the Baltimore Colts so they ended up trading him to Denver, who went to five Super Bowls with Number 7 behind center (The Colts got to pick a QB with the first pick on two later occasions - Jeff George who failed miserably and Peyton Manning who turned them into one of the NFL's elite teams). The other example that I recall was the San Diego Chargers trading Eli Manning to the Giants on draft day, but they did get Philip Rivers as part of the dealm, who has proven himself to be an elite NFL QB. That said, Eli has the hardware.

There is a lot of debate about trading up or down in the draft, and I think it's the general consensus that a team is better served trading down and stockpiling picks, as long as its scouts are adept at identifying NFL ready prospects int he later rounds. The New England Patriots are the embodiment of this approach, with Tom Brady the ultimate example of a lower round guy becoming a world beater. Top draft picks demand huge amounts of money to sign them, and there are several examples of the money and the pressure ruining careers - Ryan Leaf anyone?

As for big trades, as ESB mentioned, it's generally a question of players and draft picks changing hands, although cash has been a part of a few deals. The Herschell Walker trade that I mentioned earlier is the biggest trade that I recall, not for the impact that Walker made in Minnesota (he wasn't a flop by any means, but he didn't instantly turn the Vikes into Champions), but for the way it forged a dynasty in Dallas from the shambles that they had been a few years before. As a Redskins fan, I found that immensely disappointing. A very topical example of a player flourishing with a new organisation is current NFL poster boy Drew Brees, who was deemed surplus to requirements in San Diego and is now regarded as one of the top three passers in the NFL.
 
Rusty - a superb post, green for that. Many thanks!

Just wiki'd Ryan Leaf... crumbs. What a waste. Trying to think of a footballing equivalent - Lee Hodges, perhaps, from a Southend perspective; Jody Morris on a slightly bigger stage, perhaps...?
 
I think the best value is in the second and third rounds.

Given a choice I'd trade down from a top 10 pick and stockpile 2nd and 3rd round picks. Your less likely to get a superstar, but still likely to get NFL starters and more of them, without tying up all that money on a high draft pick. Each time you drop down one spot (not round, spot ie 4th to 5th) you have to pay an estimated $923,000 less in guaranteed money. I think there are economic inefficiencies here that can be exploited (a la Moneyball - its on baseball but the economic principles behind the story are the same).

I've posted this before, but this is how the team's value the picks.
 

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