Forthcoming games

[LeighDad]

On a side note, we often discuss points requirements but this year's playoff entry will most likely be lower than previous years given that three teams have been deducted points and, most significantly, Leeds. I would imagine 70 or 69 might possibly get in this season.

I'm probably just being picky, but how does 2 teams already in the relegation zone getting points deducted affect points requirements for play-off places?

 

[sufcintheprem]

I'm probably just being picky, but how does 2 teams already in the relegation zone getting points deducted affect points requirements for play-off places?

No, it's a fair point. My thought was that had Bournemouth and Luton not had their points deductions, Bournemouth would be out of the relegation zone and Luton would be a point off of safety. The extra points would have a pressurising effect on those above.

Thinking on this a bit more, lessening the pressure would probably make games easier for the teams playing these teams and might contribute to a higher points total needed!

 

[Kenny]

People are talking up 9 points from our last 6 games to guarantee a playoff spot. Over the past few seasons we have tended to have a bit of a blip around this point of the campaign....

03/04
---------
Southend 3-2 Darlington
Northampton 2-2 Southend
Southend 2-2 Hull
Southend 0-2 Yeovil
Rochdale 1-1 Southend
Southend 1-2 Torquay

points: 6

04/05
------
Southend 2-0 BristolR
Southend 0-1 Orient
Macclesfield 1-2 Southend
Oxford 2-1 Southend
Southend 0-1 Yeovil
Grimsby 1-1 Southend

points: 7

05/06
-------
Southend 2-1 Blackpool
Southend 0-1 Gillingham
Barnsley 2-2 Southend
Southend 0-1 Doncaster
Swansea 2-2 Southend
Southend 1-0 BristolC

points: 8

06/07
-------
Southend 0-3 Colchester
Preston 2-3 Southend
Southend 1-3 Barnsley
Plymouth 2-1 Southend
Southend 1-3 Luton
Southampton 4-1 Southend

points: 3

 

[BrettieAngell]

This season we have had a late surge up the table which is very unusual for us.

We looked pretty confident on Saturday and I reall feel momentum is with is, I reckon we will win our next three games meaning Carlisle and Tranmere will be fairly academic.

 

[sufcintheprem]

This season we have had a late surge up the table which is very unusual for us.

We looked pretty confident on Saturday and I reall feel momentum is with is, I reckon we will win our next three games meaning Carlisle and Tranmere will be fairly academic.

It feels as though in previous seasons we'd got in to a position where we had something to lose whereas now we have everything to gain.

04 - went on a Dudfield-inspired sparkling run and were effectively safe before the last few games.
05 - Top of the table when going to Cardiff and didn't seem able to shake off effects
06 - Built up a gap but saw it slip away in a series of tense games
07 - Got out of the drop zone only to be dragged back in when the midfield goals dried up.

08 - comfortably in the playoffs on good form - teams around have more expectation/more to lose.

 

[Irate Ian]

It's always fun when you're involved at either end of the table and you get significicant days even when you're not playing and this will be happening tomorrow night. Carlisle can help consolidate our playoff position by beating Forest and keeping one more team between us and the dreaded dashed line while Leeds face a tricky short trip to the Keepmoat to face Doncaster where a home win would massively help us. As playoff teams go, Leeds is one you'd want to avoid with their now occasionally excellent style of play and fervent support.

I write it in this manner as I'm not swayed by fate so easily any more and believe it would take a strange turn of events for us not to be featuring in the playoffs based on form. Our last 5 home games have yielded 11 points from a possible 15 which would be ok normally but good when we've only dropped points to Swansea and Forest. Our away form has seen us take 10 points from 15 which is second only to Carlisle in the league and is the sort of away form that wins you leagues.

Taking our away form (2pts per game) against Crewe's home form (1 pt per game), I expect a Southend win will be around 2.5, possibly less and we should be hoping to win this.

After that, Brighton, a team who will most likely win at home to Port Vale the week before but would probably want at least a draw against us to keep their push going. In spite of their form, their away form is the same as Crewe's home form. Given how we tend to perform against better teams, I'd say a draw looks likely here with a decent chance of home win.

Next up is Northampton whose away form across 5 looks good with 2w, 2d and 1l but the two away wins seem a long time ago now and their form has stuttered. Midtable opposition of the sort every promotion chasing team would want to be playing. We should be odds on to win this one and depending on the previous result, that would be us pretty much in.

After that, Two very difficult trips to Carlisle and Tranmere where we can't expect much and a home game against Port Vale where we should expect a win (in spite of their slight resurgence of late).

If we get WXWLLW from our last six, that will leave us on 75 points and most likely playing Forest across two legs where we will have to improve considerably upon what we've done against them so far this season.

On a side note, we often discuss points requirements but this year's playoff entry will most likely be lower than previous years given that three teams have been deducted points and, most significantly, Leeds. I would imagine 70 or 69 might possibly get in this season.

A very interesting read, well structured and potentially sound arguments.

However a number of assumptions based upon current and past "form"

My take is that the form book can be thrown out of the window on the run-in.

One cup final/game at a time and gamble only when & if necessary.

Would not mind either Leeds or Notts Forest in semi, if we make it. Leeds supporters can easily & quickly turn on their own team, if in the away leg can nick a goal or two.

Do not fancy our chances quite so much agaisnt Carlisle or Doncaster. Very tricky away legs at either.

Some Forest fans have the knives out for Calderwood, having not apparently scored enough goals - but only conceeded 9 at home all season and that might be tougher than Leeds ?

Who knows ? What we do know is that neither will relish meeting us and I for one am preparing for a cost of Wembley ticket sized wager, as the odds compilers will surely make either Leeds or Forest short odds favs over us regardless of finishing positions.

I think that would represent tremendous value in our favour.

 

[Murkey_Mouse]

If anyone correct me if I was wrong, did we smash our club record going 17 game unbeaten in 2004-05 season? If we can make it 18 unbeaten this season and at same time, break the club record - we would be promoted!

9 game unbeaten so far with 6 games to go plus 3 game *if we get into the Play-Off* - what a time to break the record!

 

[Murkey_Mouse]

03/04
---------
Southend 3-2 Darlington
Northampton 2-2 Southend
Southend 2-2 Hull
Southend 0-2 Yeovil
Rochdale 1-1 Southend
Southend 1-2 Torquay

points: 9

Not sure where the extra 3 point come from?

 

[LeighDad]

06/07
-------
Southend 0-3 Colchester
Preston 2-3 Colchester ???
Southend 1-3 Barnsley
Plymouth 2-1 Southend
Southend 1-3 Luton
Southampton 4-1 Southend

points: 3

I know we pretty much threw in the towel at the end of last season, but surely we earned our own points at Preston!

 

[Irate Ian]

People are talking up 9 points from our last 6 games to guarantee a playoff spot. Over the past few seasons we have tended to have a bit of a blip around this point of the campaign....

03/04
---------
Southend 3-2 Darlington
Northampton 2-2 Southend
Southend 2-2 Hull
Southend 0-2 Yeovil
Rochdale 1-1 Southend
Southend 1-2 Torquay

points: 9

04/05
------
Southend 2-0 BristolR
Southend 0-1 Orient
Macclesfield 1-2 Southend
Oxford 2-1 Southend
Southend 0-1 Yeovil
Grimsby 1-1 Southend

points: 7

05/06
-------
Southend 2-1 Blackpool
Southend 0-1 Gillingham
Barnsley 2-2 Southend
Southend 0-1 Doncaster
Swansea 2-2 Southend
Southend 1-0 BristolC

points: 8

06/07
-------
Southend 0-3 Colchester
Preston 2-3 Colchester
Southend 1-3 Barnsley
Plymouth 2-1 Southend
Southend 1-3 Luton
Southampton 4-1 Southend

points: 3

Now Ken why did you have do go dragging up the past !!

Quite right you are though, maybe this season we will break the mold.

 

[shrimper n sydney]

Just checked on the scores. Forest are 1-0 up so are leeds!!!

 

[sufcintheprem]

Just checked on the scores. Forest are 1-0 up so are leeds!!!

Both won and the ball's back in our court to maintain our position.

Worryingly, Gillingham's 2-1 win puts them a point behind Crewe so I expect they'll be desperate to win as well. It should be quite a tense game.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

If you want a job doing well, don't rely on a bunch oif northerners!
Thank you so much Donny & Carlisle!
Still, at least it proves the end of season wobbles are hitting other teams & a result up at Carlisle isn't as fictional as some on here maybe believe!

 

[les@donr]

Glasgow, I was at the game last night, we battered L**ds and should have scored 4, they had one shot on target and ended in the back of the net. Sometimes games go that way.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Glasgow, I was at the game last night, we battered L**ds and should have scored 4, they had one shot on target and ended in the back of the net. Sometimes games go that way.

Sorry mate! Not a personal comment it was tongue in cheek!
Was hoping you would prevail.
I take it Leeds filled the away end (seeing as they've got loads of fans in/around Donny)?

Lets hope Orient bring them back down to earth on Saturday!

 

[les@donr]

No probs, we wanted to beat L**ds too, Hefferman is totally off form, had 3 chances to score, fluffed the lot!
L**ds did fill the awayend, and others were dotted around the home end too, those who jumped up when they scored were kicked out, the rest wisely kept their heads down.
Can't see LO doing anything against L**ds, they are on a poor run at the moment.

 

[Somerset Ex-TTB]

I have just redone the predictor thingy and this is how it comes out

Swansea 95
Carlisle 87
Notts F 79
Donny 79
Southend 78
Leeds 73
Walsall 73
Brighton 67

I am sure this will change in a weeks time!