sufcintheprem
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It's always fun when you're involved at either end of the table and you get significicant days even when you're not playing and this will be happening tomorrow night. Carlisle can help consolidate our playoff position by beating Forest and keeping one more team between us and the dreaded dashed line while Leeds face a tricky short trip to the Keepmoat to face Doncaster where a home win would massively help us. As playoff teams go, Leeds is one you'd want to avoid with their now occasionally excellent style of play and fervent support.
I write it in this manner as I'm not swayed by fate so easily any more and believe it would take a strange turn of events for us not to be featuring in the playoffs based on form. Our last 5 home games have yielded 11 points from a possible 15 which would be ok normally but good when we've only dropped points to Swansea and Forest. Our away form has seen us take 10 points from 15 which is second only to Carlisle in the league and is the sort of away form that wins you leagues.
Taking our away form (2pts per game) against Crewe's home form (1 pt per game), I expect a Southend win will be around 2.5, possibly less and we should be hoping to win this.
After that, Brighton, a team who will most likely win at home to Port Vale the week before but would probably want at least a draw against us to keep their push going. In spite of their form, their away form is the same as Crewe's home form. Given how we tend to perform against better teams, I'd say a draw looks likely here with a decent chance of home win.
Next up is Northampton whose away form across 5 looks good with 2w, 2d and 1l but the two away wins seem a long time ago now and their form has stuttered. Midtable opposition of the sort every promotion chasing team would want to be playing. We should be odds on to win this one and depending on the previous result, that would be us pretty much in.
After that, Two very difficult trips to Carlisle and Tranmere where we can't expect much and a home game against Port Vale where we should expect a win (in spite of their slight resurgence of late).
If we get WXWLLW from our last six, that will leave us on 75 points and most likely playing Forest across two legs where we will have to improve considerably upon what we've done against them so far this season.
On a side note, we often discuss points requirements but this year's playoff entry will most likely be lower than previous years given that three teams have been deducted points and, most significantly, Leeds. I would imagine 70 or 69 might possibly get in this season.
I write it in this manner as I'm not swayed by fate so easily any more and believe it would take a strange turn of events for us not to be featuring in the playoffs based on form. Our last 5 home games have yielded 11 points from a possible 15 which would be ok normally but good when we've only dropped points to Swansea and Forest. Our away form has seen us take 10 points from 15 which is second only to Carlisle in the league and is the sort of away form that wins you leagues.
Taking our away form (2pts per game) against Crewe's home form (1 pt per game), I expect a Southend win will be around 2.5, possibly less and we should be hoping to win this.
After that, Brighton, a team who will most likely win at home to Port Vale the week before but would probably want at least a draw against us to keep their push going. In spite of their form, their away form is the same as Crewe's home form. Given how we tend to perform against better teams, I'd say a draw looks likely here with a decent chance of home win.
Next up is Northampton whose away form across 5 looks good with 2w, 2d and 1l but the two away wins seem a long time ago now and their form has stuttered. Midtable opposition of the sort every promotion chasing team would want to be playing. We should be odds on to win this one and depending on the previous result, that would be us pretty much in.
After that, Two very difficult trips to Carlisle and Tranmere where we can't expect much and a home game against Port Vale where we should expect a win (in spite of their slight resurgence of late).
If we get WXWLLW from our last six, that will leave us on 75 points and most likely playing Forest across two legs where we will have to improve considerably upon what we've done against them so far this season.
On a side note, we often discuss points requirements but this year's playoff entry will most likely be lower than previous years given that three teams have been deducted points and, most significantly, Leeds. I would imagine 70 or 69 might possibly get in this season.
