Coronavirus (Non-Politics)

[Member]

I saw a report on the age distribution a week or 2 ago (copied under graph below). It is now much more prevalent in the under 40's. I queried with the author if that was because at the start of the crisis you were only tested if hospitalised, or over 70(?), so testing was skewed to the older generation. The author claimed not - but I don't see how the age statistics from now are comparable to 4 to 6 months ago.


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In recent days and weeks, concern has risen that Europe could be at the beginning of a second wave of the pandemic. Here in the UK in fact, the number of confirmed cases rose by 2,988 yesterday, which was the largest daily increase since May 22. But even as case numbers have risen, hospitalisations and deaths have thankfully not. One of the key reasons for this is that it’s now younger people who are more likely to get the virus. Most of this evidence has been anecdotal across the world but the attached chart from Public Health England provides some telling statistics.


Back at the peak of the pandemic in late March, 61% of the confirmed cases were among those over 60. But they now make up just 11% of cases. For over 80 year olds it's dropped from 28% to 3%.


For those under 40 it’s the reverse picture with cases increasing from 14% to 67% of the total.


Cases amongst the 20-39 years old group has increased from 12% of the total to 48% over the same period. Indeed this cohort seem to be where most of the concern is globally in terms of spreading the virus. They are young enough not to be too scared by the risks and also young enough to be restless from the restrictions.

The author (who is it?) doesn't know for sure about the age distribution. What I've seen from serology testing is that many younger people were infected in the early part of the year but never got a test because they weren't symptomatic, as you correct assume.

 

[GNH]

The thing that really annoys me is the media frenzy and castastophic headlines that come with every single article.

It has been reported in recent days that the number of people receiving intensive care in England has doubled and it's approaching the end of the world. While it is true from a bit of research that this is indeed the case, they have almost doubled from 62 on 7th Sept to 115 on 18th Sept (latest figures). While this is a slight cause for concern the numbers at the peak in April were 2,868 but this is not even mentioned.

Provide some balance in your reports for goodness sake, it's pathetic.

If you want to see what it looks like on a graph it's HERE

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

What I would like to read and understand are the following;

Have any healthy under 20s, 30s, or 40s, with no other underlying issues, died from covid? Have any had serious, life changing covid reaction?
At present I believe answer is No, but not confirmed.

Has any person had a positive, recovered fully, and got a positive again?
As far as I know, this has been hinted at but not confirmed.

I suspect the answers to these points are being restricted as it could undermine both the fear or control measures.
And also endanger the at risk groups as a sizable minority might have an "I'm alright Jack" attitude.
.

 

[Uncle_Rons_Teapot]

I don't know if anyone has seen this but I found it very interesting

 

[Holy Joe]

The author (who is it?) doesn't know for sure about the age distribution. What I've seen from serology testing is that many younger people were infected in the early part of the year but never got a test because they weren't symptomatic, as you correct assume.

It was a report from a bank - so the author is not a medical person - but is well versed with statistics and data sets.

 

[Member]

It was a report from a bank - so the author is not a medical person - but is well versed with statistics and data sets.

yeah like I said I don't think they can infer that the age distribution of infections has shifted because they don't know the true distribution earlier in the epidemic, it's completely dependent on the age mix of people who were tested. serology studies suggest it was more prevalent in younger people that originally thought. we've learned a lot in the recent months about how transmission really occurs.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

yeah like I said I don't think they can infer that the age distribution of infections has shifted because they don't know the true distribution earlier in the epidemic, it's completely dependent on the age mix of people who were tested. serology studies suggest it was more prevalent in younger people that originally thought. we've learned a lot in the recent months about how transmission really occurs.

When you say "we've learned" who is the we please?
And could you share the knowledge on how the transmission " really occurs".
Thank you.

 

[Member]

When you say "we've learned" who is the we please?
And could you share the knowledge on how the transmission " really occurs".
Thank you.

by "we've learned" I mean the general public through collective scientific discovery.

This is the best summary in lay language regarding transmission that I've read:

The Most Likely Way You’ll Get Infected With Covid-19

You don’t have to sanitize your apples anymore, but you do have to wear a mask

elemental.medium.com

Here is a lay summary of the Imperial serological study that shows how COVID-19 antibodies were more prevalent in young people (18-24) vs older people (65-74)

Largest study on home coronavirus antibody testing publishes first findings | Imperial News | Imperial College London

More than 100,000 people across England have tested themselves for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at home as part of a major research programme.

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[rigsby]

If you drive past the test centre by the Range in Southend, the long queues are full of children....Children who have been sent home because someone in their class has a temperature.

The last thing I would do is take an elderly relative to join one of those crowded queues to be tested......So that means children will now be a higher percentage of positive tests.

In the meantime only 307 healthy people under the age of 60 have died of Covid since March....Now heres something you may not know. If you tested positive in March but were killed in a car crash in July....Your one of those 307. The government have agreed thats silly so they have reduced the time to 28 days.....So if you don't want to be the victim of Covid don't do anything dangerous, like cross the road, for 28 days after your corona test.

As for the people who had underlying health issues. Its an absolute fact that many were diagnosed over the phone or added to the list even if they had terminal illnesses.

In the meantime 1600 people a day die so be careful out there.....Fingers crossed for a good friend and fellow shrimper who has to have something cancerous removed form his kidney next week.....The whole process has been slowed because all sorts of people weren't available this summer.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

Thanks for the answers Pubey.
Basically then wear a mask indoors at shops, pubs etc as covid is largely spread by moisture in breath, sneezes and coughs. Washing hands and surfaces is limited factor but worth doing.

Going back many months on this thread, but how is the vaccine doing and will it be similar to the flu in that it won't be a golden bullet and cure all?

 

[Mad Cyril]

Confirmed case in my household and the probable source is school.

 

[londonblue]

Confirmed case in my household and the probable source is school.

You really shouldn't be hanging around such places.

Seriously, I hope you all recover quickly.

 

[Member]

If you drive past the test centre by the Range in Southend, the long queues are full of children....Children who have been sent home because someone in their class has a temperature

That isn’t true. No one is being advised to take a test unless there is a positive case in their class. People who are trying to do this for ‘piece of mind’ shouldn’t be.

 

[Mad Cyril]

That isn’t true. No one is being advised to take a test unless there is a positive case in their class. People who are trying to do this for ‘piece of mind’ shouldn’t be.

We had a confirmed case at school and one of my family sat next to them in maths.

Sadly they have now also tested positive and my entire household is on lockdown.

 

[Massimo Giovanni]

We had a confirmed case at school and one of my family sat next to them in maths.

Sadly they have now also tested positive and my entire household is on lockdown.

How is he or she doing?
I don't know where you live but I am near the hospital so please PM me if I can help with collect or drop anything off for you if not far.

 

[Member]

We had a confirmed case at school and one of my family sat next to them in maths.

Sadly they have now also tested positive and my entire household is on lockdown.

Sorry to hear this. Hope they ride it out ok

 

[Ricey]

Over 13k positive tests in France today and over 4.4K in the UK. I fear another lockdown is coming!

 

[GNH]

That isn’t true. No one is being advised to take a test unless there is a positive case in their class. People who are trying to do this for ‘piece of mind’ shouldn’t be.

Wrong.

Lots of kids in my childs class had been told to stay at home until they have had a test because they had come into contact with someone who had come into contact with someone who tested positive.

How mad is that.

 

[Member]

Thanks for the answers Pubey.
Basically then wear a mask indoors at shops, pubs etc as covid is largely spread by moisture in breath, sneezes and coughs. Washing hands and surfaces is limited factor but worth doing.

Going back many months on this thread, but how is the vaccine doing and will it be similar to the flu in that it won't be a golden bullet and cure all?

I don't have any inside knowledge about vaccines really, although my company is running the Moderna trial which is a phase 3 study expected to be one of the first to read out.

A lot of my work is on the therapeutics side and unfortunately I can't speak about specifics, but it's very exciting how quickly things are progressing and what we call 'standard of care' for patients hospitalised with COVID is significantly better now than it was 6 months ago. This has lead to a drop in the mortality rates, which is great. On the flip side though we're learning a lot more about long COVID and it's important to understand how effective acute treatments can benefit or avoid long term complications, but also the importance of post-ICU rehab and better management of chronic complications post-COVID like heart failure, mental health, renal impairment etc.

We've never been able to develop a vaccine before for a coronavirus. That's important to remember. I'm not an immunologist but my lay understand is that it's quite difficult to achieve a sustained immune response, and also because the coronavirus tends to affect the upper respiratory tract, which our immune system struggles to protect. I'm hopeful that we will develop a vaccine that will cause an immune response and will therefore provide some benefit. My concerns however are:
- If that immune response will persist long enough to enable an effective vaccination policy to be implemented. A response of 3 or 4 months may not be sufficient, especially if the vaccine is say 70-80% effective, you might not really achieve herd immunity and requiring regular boosters may not be feasible for implementation. You'd have to argue if it was worth it.
- It could well be that we develop 3-4 vaccines (from the >100 being studied currently) but they all have slightly different benefits and safety profiles. We see this with the flu jab, with some being used for older people, some for children etc. I think we might see similar happen and then it's a case of trying to work with what we have.
- determining if a trial is 'successful' and therefore if a vaccine is to be approved is challenging. Is 60% immunity/response a 'good enough' result? Once a vaccine/trial is declared a success then it becomes very difficult to recruit for other trials that are ongoing, and therefore we may never see the 'best' vaccine come through, because we're in such a rush to get something approved.

 

[Bearded Shrimper]

my boss admitted today he's really worried about the finances of the charity I work for. Too early to tell the possible staffing implications but I've never seen him so concerned.
It's a reminder that, for all the awful health effects, the economic tsunami coming in could be devastating. And our daughter is due in January