World Cup Betting - Spreads

[steveo]

Sporting Index announce their World Cup markets.

i fancy these. what you think people?

Total goal yardage 2000-2100 - buy

Yellow cards : 285-295 - buy.

Fastest Tournament goal - 90-100 seconds - buy

 

[TrueBlue]

Can you explain how these work Steveo

 

[steveo]

ok, Sporting Index estimate that if you add the yardage that every goal in the tournament is scored from, the total will be between 2000 and 2100. You can bet higher or lower, so if you go higher, and every game ended 0-0, the yardage would be 0. So you would lose 2000 x your stake.

Obviously this wont happen but that should give you an idea. Im going high so I want to see a lot of goals all form long range.

The figure they set is constantly changing throughout the tournament as new punters join in, so Ill go high ion the goal yardage and expect a load of goals in the group stage, then when the matches get a bit tighter, and the market moves up, ill stop the bet.

By going high you know the maximum amount of money you can lose. If you go low it can be pretty dangerous. Example, go high on bookings. If there are no bookings maximum loss is £285.

If you go low and the refs go yellow card crazy, after there have been 285 bookings, you are losing a £1 for each new yellow card.

There are 64 games so they are expecting an average of 4.46 per game, which seems quite high to me. Maybe ill go low.

 

[Usual_Suspect]

Sporting Index announce their World Cup markets.

i fancy these. what you think people?

Total goal yardage 2000-2100 - buy

Yellow cards : 285-295 - buy.

Fastest Tournament goal - 90-100 seconds - buy

So for the fastest goal your potential max downside for £1 a point is £100?

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

So for the fastest goal your potential max downside for £1 a point is £100?

If you buy at 100, then yes (although it's probably 96 as it would take at least 4 secs to score). If you sell at 90, your potential down-side could be anything up to £5,310 (90mins x 60secs -90secs) + any injury time.

 

[steveo]

If you buy at 100, then yes (although it's probably 96 as it would take at least 4 secs to score). If you sell at 90, your potential down-side could be anything up to £5,310 (90mins x 60secs -90secs) + any injury time.

Going long (higher) is a buy.

I think they only go to 90 minutes.

i think its fairer than fixed odds as you have the option to go either side so the market maker has to give a fair price. Some fo the fixed odds prices you get on a single football match are very poor, im sure Uxbridge will agree.

Without looking have a guess at these:

How many times a keeper punches the ball (64 games)
How many times the ball hits the crossbar (64 games)

See what you come up with.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

How many times a keeper punches the ball (64 games) - 340 / 345 ??

How many times the ball hits the crossbar (64 games) - 29 / 31 ??

 

[steveo]

How many times a keeper punches the ball (64 games) - 340 / 345 ??

How many times the ball hits the crossbar (64 games) - 29 / 31 ??

Punches 102-108

Crossbar 26-72

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Punches 102-108

Crossbar 26-72

So they reckon there will only be an average of 1.5 punches per game. Interesting....

That Crossbar spread looks a tad on the wide side ;)

 

[steveo]

So they reckon there will only be an average of 1.5 punches per game. Interesting....

That Crossbar spread looks a tad on the wide side ;)

I lost going long on punches in the euros.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

I lost going long on punches in the euros.

I suppose it depends what they class as a punch...

 

[steveo]

I suppose it depends what they class as a punch...

Dodgy Keepers'
A prediction on the total number of times goalkeepers punch the ball at the World Cup.
Note: Fist must be clenched. This market is OPTA adjudicated. 90 minutes play only.

 

[Tommy2holes]

Erm im lost. Never did understand spread betting but always wanted to.

 

[steveo]

Erm im lost. Never did understand spread betting but always wanted to.

ok. Simple version.

They set a market , you pick higher or lower.

Example. Sportingindex.com think there will be between 30 and 32 headed goals in the whole of the world cup.

If you think more you go higher. If you think less you go lower.

Say the total is 42 and youve gone higher, then you are a winner and have won 10 times your original stake.

If you have gone low, youve lost 12 times your original stake.

You dont actually put any money down, you just need to open an account.

Go to www.sportingindex.com and click play for fun. This will allow you to have a mess around and see what you could have won.

 

[MrB]

Had some fun with Spreads in 2002, myself and 3 mates lumped on Germany on a goals scored x points gained during the group stage spread. From memory the Spread was about 45 points which seems high but there was a 50 point bonus if your team won all their games. France and Brazil both had stupidly high targets so we plumped for Germany who had Cameroon, Saudi Arabia and Ireland. Three tight 1-0 wins would see us with 3 x 9 + 50 = 77 points, any more goals would be a bonus. We lumped on £20 per point each figuring that they'd have to win at least 2 of those games and score 4 goals so our max loss was going to be £400 each.

Imagine our unbridled joy when Germany went and smacked 8 goals past Saudi Arabia. 24 points set up already, and every point they picked up therein worth at least 8 points to the spread. Suddenly, two 1-0 wins in the final two games would give us 10 x 9 + 50 = 140 points and a nigh on £2k each, every additional goal worth another £180 a pop.

Unbridled joy soon turned to despair when they were cruising at 1-0 against Ireland when that little oik Robbie Keane popped up with a 90th minute equaliser to steal away our bonus points. The pub erupted, we cried into our pints. 9 x 4 = 36, we needed a result against Cameroon or suddenly we were looking at a £200 loss. Fortunately ze Germans didn't let us down with a 2-0 win and we ended with 11 x 7 = 77 (same as the original target with bonus points) and a nice £600 profit. But we were forever left cursing that goal and I will forever hate the little cartwheeling Irish ponce.

It made up for the disastrous goal minute supremacy bet I'd put on France in their opening match against 'unknown minnows' Senegal......

 

[steveo]

What do you think of the yards and the fastest goal?

Tempted to do the cards because Fifa might come out with some strict stuff for refs on shirt pulling and diving.

 

[MrB]

What do you think of the yards and the fastest goal?

Tempted to do the cards because Fifa might come out with some strict stuff for refs on shirt pulling and diving.

Yards I wouldn't have a clue about and fastest goal is purely random but at least there's a limited downside.

Yellows is an interesting one, 64 matches so you need an average of 5 cards a game to start making money. That seems quite a lot.

 

[MrB]

Ok I'm in. Bought £5 on number of times ball hits the crossbar during the tournament at 27.5. 64 games (90 minutes only) so less than 1 in 2, they've obviously got the stats but I can't see there being too much downside and gives me something extra to look out for!

 

[steveo]

Ok I'm in. Bought £5 on number of times ball hits the crossbar during the tournament at 27.5. 64 games (90 minutes only) so less than 1 in 2, they've obviously got the stats but I can't see there being too much downside and gives me something extra to look out for!

I lost on that in the euros.

 

[MrB]

Encouraging!!