Will we Survive the drop.The answer is.......

[Flinty]

We most definately can.............

Been bored this evening so i have plotted on excel the remaining fixtures of the bottom 9 clubs home and away. Allocating points based on form and home / away records i have come up with a projected Final Table.

What I haven't done is looked at the dates of the games as this may have a factor i.e. our last game against Southampton, they may well have secured a playoff birth and are resting players for this fixture giving us more likely hood of some points for example. There are some interesting facts though with regards to who plays who, listed below in black games against bottom 9 in red top 9

Leeds H 3 1 A 1 3....the away being us
Southend H 5 0 A 2 2
Barnsley H 1 3 A 3 1
QPR:hilarious: H 1 4 A 2 3
Hull H 3 1 A 2 4
Luton H 3 3 A 4 1
Norwich H :hilarious: H 1 5 A 4 1 ....the home game being Ipswich
Ipswich H 3 2 A 4 1
Burnley H 3 2 A 2 3
Coventry H 3 3 A 1 2

I can't see the likes of Leeds, QPR, Luton, Norwich or Burnley picking up any away points and i can't see Norwich picking many home points up as they have to play 4 of the top 5 sides.

Home form is definately the key so in our case plymouth preston and southampton for this analysis are non essential games. I have us for 14 points out of our home games and 2 from our away. I think Coventry will now pull clear due to the Dowie effect leaving 9 s****ping...and it will be a s**** I believe......my final table............

Coventry 57
Ipswich 51
Burnley 50
Hull 50
Southend 47
Norwich 44
Luton 44
Barnsley 43
leeds 41
QPR 40


for the record i have predicted we will only draw at home to Barnsley and Leicester


:D :angel:

 

[Blues Trader]

I said before Christmas we would turn it round the second-half of the season as we were losing but not getting thrashed. The last few weeks have convinced me that we will go on a run and stay up. Once the injured players are back and Foran settles in we will pull out of the bottom three.

 

[RobM.]

6th from bottom with 47 points?

Looking back at previous tables, 48 is definitely down and even 52 pointers have gone down in the past.

 

[Flinty]

I think it will be different this year....a record low but look for yourself and find enough points out of these

QPR Current Points 35

home
cardiff
Luton
Preston
Sheff W
stoke
west Brom

away
cov
derby
ipswich
Leicester
Sunderland
Wolves

Leeds Current points 31

Home
burnley
Ipswich
Luton
Plymouth
Preston
sheff w

Away
brum
Col u
derby
Leicester
Southampton
Southend

Barnsley Currently 35 points

home
Brum
Palace
Preston
Sheff
w
stoke
sunderland

Away
Cov
ipswich
plymouth
southend
stoke
West Brom

Norwich are in ****e as well...their away form is toilet and have the following home games

brum
derby
ipswich
southampton
stoke
West Brom

 

[Mr. Benedict]

I admire your optimism, ramblers shrimp!

Football has a habit of springing nasty surprises though - look no further than our win at Brum for instance. I don't think we can rely on anyone to do us a favour, which would mean us having to win something like 7 of our remaining 11 games to stay up... I know the team is capable of doing it, but whether they can sustain that kind of form is another question entirely

 

[Flinty]

I still don't think that we will need that many....I think teams will stay up with 50 points or less.

 

[turkishm]

other than sunderland no one has outclassed in the 2nd half of the season. bad luck refs decisions have sunk us. our form is good, once our luck changes the results will come. 50 points i think will just do it. so come on its not over at all.

 

[canveyshrimper]

I still don't think that we will need that many....I think teams will stay up with 50 points or less.

I agree with you, I have a feeling that 48 points may well be good enough to stay up, but as has alreadt been said football has a nasty way of biting you in the backside. Apart from that I don't fancy going to Southampton for the last match of the season wanting a win to stay up.

 

[Hooly]

other than sunderland no one has outclassed in the 2nd half of the season. bad luck refs decisions have sunk us. our form is good, once our luck changes the results will come. 50 points i think will just do it. so come on its not over at all.

Where was the bad luck against Palace? Other than unluckily not being able to put the ball in the net.

The bad luck again on Saturday wasn't about the ref's decision at the end it was the failure to score more than 1 goal in the 2nd half when we were bossing the game completely.

You make you're own luck in this game. Score enough goals & luckily you win. Don't score enough goals & unluckily you lose.

All the Owls I was with on Saturday, including David Hirst their ex centre forward, were very impressed with the way we play football & were saying how ****ed off they'd have been if they'd been a Southend fan & come away with nothing. But as I pointed out to them we simply didn't make enough of our chances against what even they admit is a pretty poor team at the moment.

 

[Cricko2]

Where was the bad luck against Palace?

Che at left back!;)

 

[Bucks_blue]

I admire your optimism, ramblers shrimp!

Football has a habit of springing nasty surprises though - look no further than our win at Brum for instance. I don't think we can rely on anyone to do us a favour, which would mean us having to win something like 7 of our remaining 11 games to stay up... I know the team is capable of doing it, but whether they can sustain that kind of form is another question entirely

I'd agree. I Don't believe we are down yet but predicting results is nigh on impossible.

Hull beating Brum, we beat brum at their place. Derby are on the rocks at the mo and could be beatable by anyone.

All we have to do is win as many games as possible and pray others mess up.

This is going to be a long run in........

 

[Dustybin]

The maths is even more simpler than that. At Christmas we were 11 points from safety, now we are 4.
That means we have gained 7 points in 2 months on our fellow strugglers. If we gain another 7 points in the final months (taking into account we play 4 of them) then we will be 3 points safe at the end of the season.
We don't need to win every game - far from it

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

6 games left at home. Win 5 and draw/lose one, plus one win and a draw from 6 away games and we will be safe. This is not a tall order and considering we have failed to win more than 2 home games on the bounce all season, it's about time we went on a roll.

 

[Billy Bests boot laces]

6 games left at home. Win 5 and draw/lose one, plus one win and a draw from 6 away games and we will be safe. This is not a tall order and considering we have failed to win more than 2 home games on the bounce all season, it's about time we went on a roll.

Got carried away there, only 5 away games not 6, still 1 win and 1 draw is reasonable.

 

[canveyshrimper]

Quite simply we must survive due to the imminent relegation of West Ham.

 

[Holy Joe]

The maths is even more simpler than that. At Christmas we were 11 points from safety, now we are 4.
That means we have gained 7 points in 2 months on our fellow strugglers. If we gain another 7 points in the final months (taking into account we play 4 of them) then we will be 3 points safe at the end of the season.
We don't need to win every game - far from it

Did the other teams have a game in hand though? Gap could be 7pts - still better than at xmas. Home games are essential and we have our part to play - come on southend.

 

[WickfordShrimper]

Quite simply we must survive due to the imminent relegation of West Ham.

Very True... We all hate the Farmhands and the Tractor pricks, But the Hamsters are our true rivals... Our Neighbours support them and we all see them down our pubs....

Come on Steve Tilson... get the players up for this fight, if we survive I see us having a good season next year as our team in the Championship as we would of learnt our lesson this season

I know we can do it, we have the players… If we fight 110 percent every game now to the end of the season ….. ****ney pricks here we come :guns: :guns: :thump:

One Team In Essex
SOUTHEND UNITED FC

 

[keefmoon]

You're all talking statiscally and how many points we can get...can we stay on a run.
Footballs more than just stats. Think about how much losing 3 games in 8 days like we have is going to affect the players. At this stage of the season.
Forget the QPR game and all that.
It's as good as finished now anyway, but if there isn't a win on Saturday...then I struggle to see how the players will think they can get out of it.
You saw how down we all were walking out of Hillsborough on saturday.
Well, that's probably how the players felt too.

 

[Dustybin]

You're all talking statiscally and how many points we can get...can we stay on a run.
Footballs more than just stats. Think about how much losing 3 games in 8 days like we have is going to affect the players. At this stage of the season.
Forget the QPR game and all that.
It's as good as finished now anyway, but if there isn't a win on Saturday...then I struggle to see how the players will think they can get out of it.
You saw how down we all were walking out of Hillsborough on saturday.
Well, that's probably how the players felt too.

Very true, but surely players from Leeds, QPR, Barnsley, Hull and Luton have similar feelings to us now and feel the pressure just as much. In fact maybe they feel the pressure more as their fan's/club's expectations are higher than ours.
Therefore we are all on an even playing field and the stats can go a long way.
We need something to drive our blind faith ;)

 

[Shrimper2thecore]

Norwich are in ****e as well...their away form is toilet and have the following home games

brum
derby
ipswich
southampton
stoke
West Brom

OUCH!!

Rather them than us