Southend United - BettingZone's Bronze bet of the day

[Beefy]

http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/footba...TORY_NAME=betting/08/08/05/manual_103829.html

The point here isn't the bet itself, it's the take on our prospects from an outsider. I think the most pertinent point he makes is that regardless of whether or not we have signed replacements, the players that were let go (including Flahavan & Maher) weren't good enough in the Manager's eyes to take us forward. I think he makes a decent argument. Although I don't think we'll be in the promotion chase at the end of the season.

 

[Beefy]

For anyone unable to access the write-up on Southend:

"Southend shouldn't be 6/1 for promotion with Steve Tilson at the helm. The Shrimpers' boss knows the course and distance better than any other manager in the section.

The Essex boys clinched the title ahead of local rivals Colchester three years ago and Tilson rallied his troops to a top-six finish last term, despite the disappointment of relegation from the Championship in 2007.

The campaign ended in bitter disappointment with a 5-1 mauling in the play-offs at the hands of Doncaster, a result that has since prompted Tilson to ring the changes over the summer.

He has faced some fierce criticism from the media for clearing the decks in such a ruthless manner, the local press clearly dismayed to see some of the club's iconic players of recent years being offloaded before replacements had been bought in.

But Tilson simply knew the limitations of his squad and decided to do something drastic about the fact that things were becoming a little stale and too many players were sitting in a comfort zone, resting on the laurels of their past achievements.

He clearly wants to inject some fresh impetus, his track record is excellent and he should be trusted to find the right blend for another promotional assault once again."

 

[sanchosser]

At last -- someone talking sense!

Who were the regulars we've let go? Flavs, Gower, Mulgrew and Black. The others were squad players, and we're still to see the best of last season's signings (Scannell, Revell, Walker).

There's been no reaction from the players (and fortunately, no rival managers) to the Clarke and Bailey transfer-listings.

We'll be OK!

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Its always interesting to read how others view us from a more objective perspective.

I don't think we are in anywhere as bad a position as some of the Jonahs make out. The loss of Gower has been underestimated, but otherwise it is pretty much the team that got us to 6th, with a better keeper. Yeah, we need a left-back, but we won the title with Nosliw Ehc at left-back so it can still be done without a left-back.

I still can't understand why people are so upset about how small our squad is, when our squad is smaller because we've lost players of the "calibre" of Zoltan Liptak, Che Wilson and Charlie MacDonald. How will we replace their contribution?

If we can replace Gower we'll be competitive.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Very interesting. The Racing Post will publish their pre-season verdict tomorrow, I'll bung that up on here.

I'll also be interested to see how my firm react to Southend over the coming weeks. In recent years the view of the football dept has generally to keep Southend on-side, i.e. not go best price on them.

Contrary to what many people appear to think, the odds compilers at the big betting firms really do know their lower league stuff - there are always exceptions of course, but it's unwise to think they're solely interested in the Prem.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Very interesting. The Racing Post will publish their pre-season verdict tomorrow, I'll bung that up on here.

I'll also be interested to see how my firm react to Southend over the coming weeks. In recent years the view of the football dept has generally to keep Southend on-side, i.e. not go best price on them.

Contrary to what many people appear to think, the odds compilers at the big betting firms really do know their lower league stuff - there are always exceptions of course, but it's unwise to think they're solely interested in the Prem.

Is that a policy on Southend, or on all clubs......

 

[Uncle Leo]

Is that a policy on Southend, or on all clubs......

Arf!

We do go out to take on Arsenal more often than not, no other spring to mind at the moment though.

 

[keefmoon]

Its always interesting to read how others view us from a more objective perspective.

I don't think we are in anywhere as bad a position as some of the Jonahs make out. The loss of Gower has been underestimated, but otherwise it is pretty much the team that got us to 6th, with a better keeper. Yeah, we need a left-back, but we won the title with Nosliw Ehc at left-back so it can still be done without a left-back.

I still can't understand why people are so upset about how small our squad is, when our squad is smaller because we've lost players of the "calibre" of Zoltan Liptak, Che Wilson and Charlie MacDonald. How will we replace their contribution?

If we can replace Gower we'll be competitive.

I understand what you are saying. The players you have mentioned were never really viable options to come into the side, and we looked like an average side on a number of occasions last year because of it. But there is no-one - literally no-one - to push the eleven that start on Saturday for their places in the team. How long until one or two of them slip into a "comfort zone" for the above reason? I think that is why we will not really challenge to be honest.
You're right, he had his moaners, but Gower will be missed.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Are we sure that the piece wasn't written by a Shrimper?! Check out his tip for relegation:

Given the general weakness of the division, it would be easy to go daft and have a piece of almost everything bigger than 3/1 but one team in particular stands out.

Relegation from the Championship was the end of a fairytale for Colchester and now the sense of anti-climax could be quite overpowering.

Gerrant Williams has admitted he thought of quitting on several occasions last term, a statement that hardly sends out a message of defiance to his demoralised players, and the Essex boys have relocated to a plush new 10,000-seater stadium, a move that opponents probably favour much more than the locals seem to.

No visiting team ever really fancied the trip to Layer Road and the club has hiked prices at the new place, meaning it will rarely be more than a quarter full this term.

So, all things considered, 12/1 about the U's dropping once again looks like cracking value and is well worth an interest.

Suddenly, I don't feel so gloomy...

:D

 

[Beefy]

He's right about the Layer Road issue. Teams won't have any fear of going to their new ground. They've got too much quality to struggle too badly, although it does make a good read!

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Are we sure that the piece wasn't written by a Shrimper?! Check out his tip for relegation:

Given the general weakness of the division, it would be easy to go daft and have a piece of almost everything bigger than 3/1 but one team in particular stands out.

Relegation from the Championship was the end of a fairytale for Colchester and now the sense of anti-climax could be quite overpowering.

Gerrant Williams has admitted he thought of quitting on several occasions last term, a statement that hardly sends out a message of defiance to his demoralised players, and the Essex boys have relocated to a plush new 10,000-seater stadium, a move that opponents probably favour much more than the locals seem to.

No visiting team ever really fancied the trip to Layer Road and the club has hiked prices at the new place, meaning it will rarely be more than a quarter full this term.

So, all things considered, 12/1 about the U's dropping once again looks like cracking value and is well worth an interest.

Suddenly, I don't feel so gloomy...

:D

He makes some excellent observations there.

12/1 looks cracking value on Col Ewe going down. Look what happened when we went down from the 2nd division first time round, look what happened to Luton last season. As a conference club who have been punching above their weight there is a real possibility of them sliding down to their natural level.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

As a conference club who have been punching above their weight there is a real possibility of them sliding down to their natural level.

:clap:

He shoots, he scores.

:D

 

[Uncle Leo]

The Racing Post are tipping us for relegation. Best price you can get on that is 14/1 with BSQ or BetFred. Their reasoning....

"Southend reached the League One play-offs last season, but that promotion push could be a distant memory by the end of this campaign.

Boss Steve Tilson has admitted that money is tight at United as they attempt to move to a new stadium and that has left the gaffer kicking off the terms with just 16 players.

Tislon has also transfer listed Simon Francis, Peter Clarke and Nicky Bailey and it is little wonder the locals are starting to get concerned.

On top of that, key midfielder Alan McCormack is set to miss the first two months of the season through injury and it may be difficult for the Essex side to recover from a poor start.

Southend's team may be good enough to avoid relegation but at 14/1 it is worth paying to find out"

Other League One recommendations from the Racing Post:

Huddersfield 2pts e/w at 16/1 (BSQ)
Col Ewe (!) 1pt e/w at 20/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes, VC)
Cheltenham to be relegated 1pt at 13/8 (Bet365)
A McLean to top score 1pt e/w at 16/1 (Stan James)
S Gillespie to top score 0.5pt e/w at 25/1 (generally available)

 

[OldBlueLady]

The Racing Post are tipping us for relegation. Best price you can get on that is 14/1 with BSQ or BetFred. Their reasoning....

"Southend reached the League One play-offs last season, but that promotion push could be a distant memory by the end of this campaign.

Boss Steve Tilson has admitted that money is tight at United as they attempt to move to a new stadium and that has left the gaffer kicking off the terms with just 16 players.

Tislon has also transfer listed Simon Francis, Peter Clarke and Nicky Bailey and it is little wonder the locals are starting to get concerned.

On top of that, key midfielder Alan McCormack is set to miss the first two months of the season through injury and it may be difficult for the Essex side to recover from a poor start.

Southend's team may be good enough to avoid relegation but at 14/1 it is worth paying to find out"

Other League One recommendations from the Racing Post:

Huddersfield 2pts e/w at 16/1 (BSQ)
Col Ewe (!) 1pt e/w at 20/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes, VC)
Cheltenham to be relegated 1pt at 13/8 (Bet365)
A McLean to top score 1pt e/w at 16/1 (Stan James)
S Gillespie to top score 0.5pt e/w at 25/1 (generally available)

Well, that's jolly nice to hear, Sky tipping us as play off candidates and Racing Post as relegation fodder. Nothing like extremes is there?

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Well, that's jolly nice to hear, Sky tipping us as play off candidates and Racing Post as relegation fodder. Nothing like extremes is there?

Sounds like everyone's been reading these boards, since that seems to cover the spread of views on here!

:thump:

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

Is McCormack really out for the first two months of the season?

 

[sufcintheprem]

The Racing Post are tipping us for relegation. Best price you can get on that is 14/1 with BSQ or BetFred. Their reasoning....

"Southend reached the League One play-offs last season, but that promotion push could be a distant memory by the end of this campaign.

Boss Steve Tilson has admitted that money is tight at United as they attempt to move to a new stadium and that has left the gaffer kicking off the terms with just 16 players.

Tislon has also transfer listed Simon Francis, Peter Clarke and Nicky Bailey and it is little wonder the locals are starting to get concerned.

On top of that, key midfielder Alan McCormack is set to miss the first two months of the season through injury and it may be difficult for the Essex side to recover from a poor start.

Southend's team may be good enough to avoid relegation but at 14/1 it is worth paying to find out"

Other League One recommendations from the Racing Post:

Huddersfield 2pts e/w at 16/1 (BSQ)
Col Ewe (!) 1pt e/w at 20/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes, VC)
Cheltenham to be relegated 1pt at 13/8 (Bet365)
A McLean to top score 1pt e/w at 16/1 (Stan James)
S Gillespie to top score 0.5pt e/w at 25/1 (generally available)

14 is mighty long for a team with so few players regardless of the calibre of those players or the management.

Fret not though, this is clearly a value bet and not necessairly one they are expecting to come in.

You also slightly oddly left out the comment about Brush intending on signing loan players and whether or not their hearts would be in it.