Respective Run-ins

[Interpol Shrimper]

What with Saturday's late goal & Sodje's injury, my sunny promotion optimism isn't as strong today, so I thought I'd have a look at both Brentford's & Huddersfield's run-ins as really they are our main 2 challengers (Col U have definitely blown the title as far as I can see now!!!)

I've resisted doing the BBC predictor thingy for weeks but today I bit the bullet and going into the last game I have us 2 points behind Brentford although with a better GD. We win v Bristol City & they draw at Dean Court therefore we win the title on GD. Huddersfield are 2 points back on 82 despite winning at Swindon.

Back in the real world, I then thought I'd see how well we've done in the games that both Brentford & Huddersfield still have to play and how they did in the games that still face us.

Brentford fixtures (SUFC results in brackets): -
BRADFORD CITY (1-1)
Rotherham (4-2)
BLACKPOOL (8 April, assume 3 points)
Swindon (2-1)
HARTLEPOOL (3-0)
Bournemouth (1-1)

SUFC total 14/18 (I personally think Brentford are capable of 16)

Huddersfield fixtures: -
Gillingham (2-1)
Bournemouth (1-1)
CHESTERFIELD (0-0)
Walsall (2-2)
YEOVIL (4-1)
Swindon (2-1)

SUFC total 12/18 (I have Huddersfield down to get 16/18 as well from these 6 games)

Now, the interesting part was when I looked at their records against the teams we have left, particularly Brentford (who've only gained 2 points out of 15, excluding Blackpool), although they have won away at Doncaster & home to Swansea which is 6 points they have over us). Huddersfield have 10/18 (2 wins & 4 draws).

None of this obviously takes us any closer to guessing whether we'll have the title sewn up before the end of the month, nor has made me really feel any better but as Tilly says 3 wins should be enough for automatic & (IMO) 4 more should see us crowned champions, so it's back to the old chestnut of us continuing our fine home form (although as I've said for the past few weeks, someone is going to come & spoil the party & I have a funny feeling it could be Gillingham!)

 

[londonblue]

So, your conclusion after all that is:-

There's 6 games to go and it's still quite tight

 

[DTS]

Thats a good read actually..

I think Huddersfield have a tough run in with 4 away from home.

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (londonblue @ April 03 2006,15:46)]So, your conclusion after all that is:-

There's 6 games to go and it's still quite tight

Touche, after my reply that I beat you to the BBC Adam Barrett thread!

Hmmm, my conclusion is that as much as I'd like to see us clinch promotion to the 2nd tier of English football at a northern town beginning with B (© MtS last week

) after Saturday's events, it just ain't gonna happen.

I just hope & prey we've got it sewn up before Bristol City, I don't think I can face another 90 minutes of tension like Grimsby last year, especially if it's a Championship decider. How sweet would it be to clinch it at the Liberty Stadium, although don't let Freddy loose with any flags, we don't want another Trundlegate do we?

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ April 03 2006,15:23)]have Huddersfield down to get 16/18 as well from these 6 games

No way, Jose. If Huddersfield win 6 out of 6 in the run in, I will eat my metaphorical hat.

For starters, the Gills' home record is superb (and Hudds' away record equally uninspired). I'd be more surprised by a Hudds win than a Gills win at Priestfield.

Second, both Bournemouth and Swindon are going to be fighting for their lives - I think the fact that both Brentford and Hudds have got to travel to the the Fitness First and the County Ground is very encouraging for us.

For us, the key is the next two home games. We absolutely have to take maximum points - no question. If we do, then the fear factor kicks in hugely for our rivals - especially Huddersfield. If we win on Saturday and the Gills do us a favour, then (crucially) we play the day before Huddersfield play at Bournemouth on Easter Saturday.

If we win our next two, and if Gills beat Hudds on Saturday, then Huddersfield will enter the game at Bournemouth knowing that if they lose, we're effectively up - or at least we'd only need a point from our next four fixtures to secure automatic promotion.

The key is that we must win our next two home games. However, it's like the Hartlepool game - we had to win, and we did. We just have to keep churning those results out, with that kind of belief, for our next two home games. And there's no reason why we can't - we've only lost twice at home all season: to Port Vale, on the opening day of the season (when, frankly, we were caught cold) and to Swansea... when they were red hot and we had a bad day at the office.

Just keep believing - and keep taking those games one at a time. Blackpool are next - and, quite simply, we have to win. If the Gills can then keep up their current form (amazing at home, awful away), then we can hopefully rely on them to take 3 points off Hudds on Saturday, and then roll over at Roots Hall on Good Friday.

We'd then be on 80 points, with Huddersfield on 68 points... and by then the fat lady would be clearing her throat in the wings.

Matt

 

[Interpol Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,16:23)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ April 03 2006,15:23)]have Huddersfield down to get 16/18 as well from these 6 games

No way, Jose.  If Huddersfield win 6 out of 6 in the run in, I will eat my metaphorical hat.

For starters, the Gills' home record is superb (and Hudds' away record equally uninspired).  I'd be more surprised by a Hudds win than a Gills win at Priestfield.

Second, both Bournemouth and Swindon are going to be fighting for their lives - I think the fact that both Brentford and Hudds have got to travel to the the Fitness First and the County Ground is very encouraging for us.

For us, the key is the next two home games.  We absolutely have to take maximum points - no question.  If we do, then the fear factor kicks in hugely for our rivals - especially Huddersfield.  If we win on Saturday and the Gills do us a favour, then (crucially) we play the day before Huddersfield play at Bournemouth on Easter Saturday.

If we win our next two, and if Gills beat Hudds on Saturday, then Huddersfield will enter the game at Bournemouth knowing that if they lose, we're effectively up - or at least we'd only need a point from our next four fixtures to secure automatic promotion.

The key is that we must win our next two home games.  However, it's like the Hartlepool game - we had to win, and we did.  We just have to keep churning those results out, with that kind of belief, for our next two home games.  And there's no reason why we can't - we've only lost twice at home all season: to Port Vale, on the opening day of the season (when, frankly, we were caught cold) and to Swansea... when they were red hot and we had a bad day at the office.

Just keep believing - and keep taking those games one at a time.  Blackpool are next - and, quite simply, we have to win.  If the Gills can then keep up their current form (amazing at home, awful away), then we can hopefully rely on them to take 3 points off Hudds on Saturday, and then roll over at Roots Hall on Good Friday.

We'd then be on 80 points, with Huddersfield on 68 points... and by then the fat lady would be clearing her throat in the wings.

Matt

You might have misread my original post.
I think they'll win 5, draw 1 (at Priestfield) actually, hence 16 points not the full 18.

I take your point about both of them having to face tough trips to Swindon & Bournemouth though.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Win 3 and we're up, win 4 and the title is ours. We may even get away with less than that, but let's face it, we really ought to win all our home games from now on in.

 

[C C Csiders]

I cannot see both Huddersfield and Brentford obtaining 16 points from their last 6 games. If they do, they will fully deserve to be promoted.

I am still keeping an eye out for Swansea. If they win their game in hand (home to Swindon, so they ought to) they are 7 points behind, and we still have to go there. They seem, also, to have only one other difficult game (away to Oldham).

I believe 2 wins, 2 draws is needed at most.

 

[canveyshrimper]

I will state that we will definitely go up with 83 points, if we get that total it will mean that Brentford & Huddersfield will both need to get 16 points from their last 6 games, Col******r 19 from their 7 and Swansea will need to win all theirs. I just don't see any side (including us) going on those sort of runs at this stage of the season.

With our points in hand and goal difference it is just possible that 80/81 points may do.

 

[Fish]

Quote[/b] (Uxbridge Shrimper @ April 03 2006,16:30)]Win 3 and we're up, win 4 and the title is ours. We may even get away with less than that, but let's face it, we really ought to win all our home games from now on in.

Mathematically the target for promotion and the top spot is currently the same. There's three teams (apart from us) who can get 86 points.

Therefore I agree that 4 wins will see us get the title - if we win our remaining home games, no-one can stop us. Any points we get away are a bonus at this time of year, anything can happen. Anything less than 4 wins and we could still end up with the play-offs.

I don't think any of the teams below us will win all of their last 6 or 7 games, but until they actually drop more points (and they've all been dropping points recently) I'm counting nothing!

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ April 03 2006,16:26)]You might have misread my original post.
I think they'll win 5, draw 1 (at Priestfield) actually, hence 16 points not the full 18.

Oh... as in 16 out of 18 points.

Nah. Still can't see it. Huddersfield's season is built entirely on their home form. They are 1-2-2 in their last 5 away from the Galpharm, and they have yet to go to Gillingham, Walsall, Bournemouth and Swindon - all of whom will be scrapping dementedly for every point.

4 out of their last six are away from home, when their away record is:

Pld W D L F A GD GFA GAA PpG Pts Rank
19 5 8 6 28 30 -2 1.47 1.57 1.21 23 9

To be honest, I would expect them to go W1 D2 L1 in their last four aways - with the defeat coming at Priestfield, the win at the woeful Walsall, and draws in the other two. They'll win their two games at home, which will leave them 3-2-1 in their last 6, entirely consistent with their current form. That would give them 11 more points, putting them on 79 points in total.

* * *

In a weird way, I'm happier about our away trips to Barnsley and Swansea. The pressure is completely off us; no one expects us to win those games, and a draw is far more use to us than to the opposition... after all, we've got the points in the bag, so a draw means it's one fewer game for our opposition that day to catch up with us.

For us, the key is all about the next two games. No excuses, no doubts, no questions... we absolutely 100% must win those two games. Win those and we'll be on 80 points - which I think would leave us pretty much on the brink of promotion.

The only question would then be whether we could beat the Bees to the title - since we have to assume they're good enough for 5 wins out of their last 6. 5 wins would put them on 83 points.

So, I reckon it's 81 points for promotion, and 84 points for the title... which means we absolutely must win our next two home games. If we do that, it's all over bar the shouting.

Matt

 

[Upminster Blue]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,18:31)]

Quote[/b] (glasgowsufc @ April 03 2006,16:26)]You might have misread my original post.
I think they'll win 5, draw 1 (at Priestfield) actually, hence 16 points not the full 18.

Oh... as in 16 out of 18 points.

Nah.  Still can't see it.  Huddersfield's season is built entirely on their home form.  They are 1-2-2 in their last 5 away from the Galpharm, and they have yet to go to Gillingham, Walsall, Bournemouth and Swindon - all of whom will be scrapping dementedly for every point.

4 out of their last six are away from home, when their away record is:

Pld W D  L  F  A  GD GFA  GAA PpG Pts Rank
19  5  8  6 28 30 -2 1.47 1.57 1.21 23 9

To be honest, I would expect them to go W1 D2 L1 in their last four aways - with the defeat coming at Priestfield, the win at the woeful Walsall, and draws in the other two.  They'll win their two games at home, which will leave them 3-2-1 in their last 6, entirely consistent with their current form.  That would give them 11 more points, putting them on 79 points in total.

* * *

In a weird way, I'm happier about our away trips to Barnsley and Swansea.  The pressure is completely off us; no one expects us to win those games, and a draw is far more use to us than to the opposition... after all, we've got the points in the bag, so a draw means it's one fewer game for our opposition that day to catch up with us.

For us, the key is all about the next two games.  No excuses, no doubts, no questions... we absolutely 100% must win those two games.  Win those and we'll be on 80 points - which I think would leave us pretty much on the brink of promotion.

The only question would then be whether we could beat the Bees to the title - since we have to assume they're good enough for 5 wins out of their last 6.  5 wins would put them on 83 points.

So, I reckon it's 81 points for promotion, and 84 points for the title... which means we absolutely must win our next two home games.  If we do that, it's all over bar the shouting.

Matt

So Mat, can you tell me, for the sake of my health and sanity, whether we're going up or not

.

I need to know now!!!! I can't stand the tension. Aaarrrrggggghhhhhhhhhhh.

 

[* ORM *]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,16:23)]For us, the key is the next two home games.  We absolutely have to take maximum points - no question.  

Just one question - if we fail to take maximum points will we still be top ?

0 or 1 point is a disaster
3 points is disappointing but still means destiny is in our own hands
4 points will do just nicely
6 points would be AWESOME.

Honestly we get an injury to ONE player who has only played in about a third of our games and we draw an AWAY game and everyone is predicting Armageddon.

Trust ORM - we'll be fine.

Going up with Maher and Fred. We're going up with Maher and Fred !

 

[* ORM *]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,18:31)]we absolutely 100% must win those two games

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !!!!

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (Upminster Blue @ April 03 2006,18:43)]So Mat, can you tell me, for the sake of my health and sanity, whether we're going up or not  

.

I need to know now!!!!  I can't stand the tension.  Aaarrrrggggghhhhhhhhhhh.

Nope. Not yet. However, I'm confident enough in my predictions about everyone else's run-ins that if we win the next two games, we'll go up.

If we don't win the next two games then, as Alec Ferguson would say, it's squeaky bum time. I don't like any of our last four fixtures:

* Barnsley almost never lose at home (although, on the plus side, they couldn't score in a brothel right now)

* Donny have been a complete bloody bogey side for us recently - 9 points out of 9 in their last 3 league games against us.

* Swansea away is a tough assignment at any time, but now they've won the LDV their confidence will be right up again.

* Bristol City at home is the easiest on paper - but their form is greatly improved, and if we're still needing points by that stage then the memories of Yeovil at home and Grimsby away leave me feeling distinctly queasy.

As a result, we have to get 6 points in our next two games. It's as simple as that. Less than that wouldn't be disastrous - but it would mean a lot of pressure, which we don't need. After all, Blackpool and Gillingham are (to put it bluntly) useless on the road; and we're pretty damn good at home.

Well, it's time for us to act like table-toppers, win our next two home games, and then relax. After that, we should be pretty much home and dry - even we can pick up four points in our remaining four fixtures, which I reckon would be enough for the title.

Matt

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (* ORM * @ April 03 2006,18:45)]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,16:23)]For us, the key is the next two home games.  We absolutely have to take maximum points - no question.  

Just one question - if we fail to take maximum points will we still be top ?  

0 or 1 point is a disaster
3 points is disappointing but still means destiny is in our own hands
4 points will do just nicely
6 points would be AWESOME.

Honestly we get an injury to ONE player who has only played in about a third of our games and we draw an AWAY game and everyone is predicting Armageddon.

Trust ORM - we'll be fine.

Yes, but if we get dragged back into the chasing pack then we're f*cked. Our last four games are the toughest of any of the promotion chasers.

4 points is the absolute bare minimum needed. Anything less than 4 points is a disaster, and 4 points would be "disappointing but still means destiny is in our own hands."

6 points would do nicely; 6 points, two clean-sheets and another 5 goals onto the GD would be AWESOME.

After all, let's have a look at those away records:

Away record: Pld W D L F A GD GFA GAA PpG Pts Rank
Blackpool 20 3 8 9 21 33 -12 1.05 1.65 0.85 17 19
Gillingham 20 2 7 11 12 36 -24 0.60 1.80 0.65 13 22

If we can't back ourselves to beat those two sides at the Hall, then what are we doing at the top of the league?

We need 3 points from both games - just like we needed against Hartlepool, and just like we got against Hartlepool.

Matt

 

[BrettieAngell]

I agree with Matt, win our next two home games and we will go up.

Any notice Bournemouth's remaining home games btw? They have Brentford, Huddersfield and Col******r so they could do us a couple of big favours before the end of the season!

Also I think last season will stand us in good stead, missing out on promotion in such a heart-breaking way but then bouncing back to win the play-offs showed the spirit this side has!

Keep the faith!!

 

[* ORM *]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,16:23)]For us, the key is the next two home games.  We absolutely have to take maximum points - no question.  

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,19:58)]4 points is the absolute bare minimum needed.  Anything less than 4 points is a disaster, and 4 points would be "disappointing but still means destiny is in our own hands."

See, you've already relaxed your position.

 

[Shrimp in a Kilt]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ April 03 2006,19:58)]If we can't back ourselves to beat (Gillingham) at the Hall, then what are we doing at the top of the league?


Matt

Which I imagine is what Swansea said a few weeks ago...

Plus I am coming down for the Gills game, so double doom...

 

[jamesmut2000]

so just to clarify MtS do you think we need to win the next two home games??