Promotion betting

[W4 Shrimper]

These are the odds for a side to get promoted from League Two, either automatically, or via the play-offs:

Northampton....evens
Chester....2/1
Grimsby....9/4
Wycombe....5/2
Lincoln....11/4
Mansfield....11/4
Notts Co...11/4
Yeovil....11/4
Bristol R....3/1
Oxford....3/1
Swansea....3/1
SOUTHEND....7/2

9/2 bar.

 

[Shrimper in India]

Jacques as you know I'm not a betting man, so I don't understand those odds.

What do they mean?!

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Ed, here's your returns (including your original stake) if you place the following amounts of money on Southend to go up:

£1.....£4.50
£2.....£9
£5.....£22.50
£10....£45
£15....£67.50
£20....£90

I'll stop there, can't see you placing more than £20 mate

Bar means all the other teams are 9/2 or higher.

 

[Fat Bastid]

Are these the "Real" Play For Your Club" odds?

Where the real football is happening right now!

Come on lads, we were relegated last week and the opposition is poor!

Get playing and lets see us promoted back into Division 1 where we belong!

 

[Guest]

Blimey ! 7/2 What happened to 33/1 and 16/1 . Hardley worth me putting my bet on this year !

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Guest @ July 06 2004,10:38)]Blimey ! 7/2 What happened to 33/1 and 16/1 . Hardley worth me putting my bet on this year !

33s to win League Two. 7/2 to get promoted by finishing first, second, third or coming through the play-offs.

 

[chadded]

W4 Shrimper, do you know the odds for the golden boot at all?

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (chadded @ July 06 2004,11:32)]W4 Shrimper, do you know the odds for the golden boot at all?

Can't find anyone betting on it currently, but bet365 would probably be the likeliest to price it up, although not for a few weeks I should imagine.

 

[Guest]

Quote[/b] (W4 Shrimper @ July 06 2004,09:11)]These are the odds for a side to get promoted from League Two, either automatically, or via the play-offs:

SOUTHEND....7/2

or go to corals & get 6/1 for promotion.

 

[Upminster Blue]

Quote[/b] (Guest @ July 06 2004,17:17)]

Quote[/b] (W4 Shrimper @ July 06 2004,09:11)]These are the odds for a side to get promoted from League Two, either automatically, or via the play-offs:

SOUTHEND....7/2

or go to corals & get 6/1 for promotion.

... or go to William Hill and get 9-1 for promotion (as I did last week). All Ladbrokes odds for Southend are very poor - hopefully because they know our true chances!

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Upminster Blue @ July 06 2004,18:07)]... or go to William Hill and get 9-1 for promotion (as I did last week).  All Ladbrokes odds for Southend are very poor - hopefully because they know our true chances!

I don't normally bet on Southend, but I have this year - if we're 33s with some firms, but 16s with Ladbrokes, the price is almost certainly going to come in before the season starts. Then lay it off and guarantee a profit!

 

[Mad Cyril]

Quote[/b] (W4 Shrimper @ July 07 2004,09:35)]

Quote[/b] (Upminster Blue @ July 06 2004,18:07)]... or go to William Hill and get 9-1 for promotion (as I did last week).  All Ladbrokes odds for Southend are very poor - hopefully because they know our true chances!

I don't normally bet on Southend, but I have this year - if we're 33s with some firms, but 16s with Ladbrokes, the price is almost certainly going to come in before the season starts. Then lay it off and guarantee a profit!

What do you mean - lay it off?

If there was a guaranteed way of making a profit none of you would be in business!

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Mad Cyril @ July 07 2004,09:55)]What do you mean - lay it off?

If there was a guaranteed way of making a profit none of you would be in business!

If Southend get a good start to the season (please!), the price will of course come in. If Southend are available to lay on an exchange (eg Betfair or Betdaq) at, say, 16/1, and you have backed them at 33s, then you can lock in a profit.

Luckily for Ladbrokes, not as many people use the exchanges as they might - they do offer better odds generally, but you can't have each-way or accumulator bets, which are of course very popular.

 

[tannisworld]

Quote[/b] ]What do you mean - lay it off?

If there was a guaranteed way of making a profit none of you would be in business!

Easily done........rough example below.

£100 win on Southend at 33/1 potential profit £3300

then

lay £150 against Southend at 16/1 potential loss of £2400

therefore if southend did indeed win , then you would win £3300 from your win bet , minus the £2400 that you laid , total profit = £900.

if southend did not win , you would win £150 from the lay minus the £100 that you would lose from your win bet , total profit = £50.

obviously you can adjust the total amounts to suit yourself , you can do this on any bet on any sport and if you take the time to study then opportunites like this are always available if you're shrewd enough to take advantage of them.

 

[Mad Cyril]

Quote[/b] (tannisworld @ July 07 2004,10:41)]

Quote[/b] ]What do you mean - lay it off?

If there was a guaranteed way of making a profit none of you would be in business!

Easily done........rough example below.

£100 win on Southend at 33/1 potential profit £3300

then

lay £150 against Southend at 16/1 potential loss of £2400

therefore if southend did indeed win , then you would win £3300 from your win bet , minus the £2400 that you laid , total profit = £900.

if southend did not win , you would win £150 from the lay minus the £100 that you would lose from your win bet , total profit = £50.

obviously you can adjust the total amounts to suit yourself , you can do this on any bet on any sport and if you take the time to study then opportunites like this are always available if you're shrewd enough to take advantage of them.  

So you are describing a hedge strategy.

I am unfamiliar with the lay though.

Are we saying:

Potential gain = stake.

Potential loss = stake * odds

Presumably people spend time looking for differing odds between two bookies to take advantage of these positions?

 

[tannisworld]

Quote[/b] ]So you are describing a hedge strategy.

I am unfamiliar with the lay though.

Are we saying:

Potential gain = stake.

Potential loss = stake * odds

Presumably people spend time looking for differing odds between two bookies to take advantage of these positions?

That's the general gist of it .

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Mad Cyril @ July 07 2004,11:02)]Presumably people spend time looking for differing odds between two bookies to take advantage of these positions?

Most popular pastime in Ladbrokes Head Office!

Of course, when you back a team at a price and they come in, it's often tempting to let it run, but if the opportunity to hedge is there, it does make sense.

 

[tannisworld]

Quote[/b] ]Of course, when you back a team at a price and they come in, it's often tempting to let it run, but if the opportunity to hedge is there, it does make sense.

If there's a profit available then take it

 

[Mad Cyril]

Presumably you can only place a lay bet with fairly small odds otherwise people would be laying a grand on (say) Billericay to NOT win the FA cup?

 

[W4 Shrimper]

Quote[/b] (Mad Cyril @ July 07 2004,11:39)]Presumably you can only place a lay bet with fairly small odds otherwise people would be laying a grand on (say) Billericay to NOT win the FA cup?

Laying is accepting a bet. I could lay Billericay at 10,000/1 for the FA Cup and hope that people would take me up on it, but they probably wouldn't.

Of course, I'd stand to lose £20,000 if I laid a £2 bet. The betting exchange firms only let you lay what is in your account, so if I was willing to lay Billericay to lose £20,000, I would have to deposit £20,000 in my account.