Penalty Shoot Outs and How to Win Them

[A Century United]

While looking for a piece of research mentioned by South Bank Hank, I came across

This Intriguing Site

It seems that a lot of research has taken place into penalty shoot outs, with some fascinating statistics:

The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the [World Cup]competition:

• First kick 86.6%
• Second kick 81.7%
• Third kick 79.3%
• Fourth kick 72.5%
• Fifth kick 80%
• ‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%

These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

And it seems that Luggy knows far more than we suspected about the management of Penalty Shoot Outs:

The researchers also state that the ability of the team’s goalkeepers to save penalties should also be known and, if possible, substitutions should be made to place the best penalty stopper goalkeeper on the pitch at the end of the game.

 

[shrimpled]

And we all know Luggy like to play the percentages. Good find ACU.

 

[Yorkshire Blue]

If there is a belief that the best penalty-taker goes first, you'd expect that the first penalty has the highest success-rate.

More interestingly in the context of yesterday is

For example, it is known that younger players are more effective than older ones during penalty shoot-outs (Jordet et al, 2006)​

 

[A Century United]

If there is a belief that the best penalty-taker goes first, you'd expect that the first penalty has the highest success-rate.

More interestingly in the context of yesterday is

For example, it is known that younger players are more effective than older ones during penalty shoot-outs (Jordet et al, 2006)​

I quite liked this bit:

The researchers conclude their paper by stating that their results demonstrate that the results of the penalty shoot-outs are not a lottery. Their results demonstrate that there are marked and logical patterns that repeat themselves time and again. The authors adopt a psychological stance on their results and they suggest that stress and anxiety may be important explanatory factors.

Indeed, who would have thought it? :dim: