Germany WILL win the World Cup...

[EastStandBlue]

... says German scientist.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-cup-calculates-scientist-happens-there.html

Because, you know, football is settled by the mathematics involved.

 

[JoshC]

Prof Tolan had predicted Germany would win the last World Cup, which they hosted in 2006, but unfortunately for his theory, the home nation was beaten by eventual winners Italy in the semi-finals.

haha brilliant!




'The weakest kicker should take the first penalty, then the second-weakest and so on,' he said.
'Then you have the greatest chance of scoring as many goals as possible.'



Can someone please explain to me how this works?

​

 

[Pubey]

Prof Tolan had predicted Germany would win the last World Cup, which they hosted in 2006, but unfortunately for his theory, the home nation was beaten by eventual winners Italy in the semi-finals.

haha brilliant!




'The weakest kicker should take the first penalty, then the second-weakest and so on,' he said.
'Then you have the greatest chance of scoring as many goals as possible.'



Can someone please explain to me how this works?

​

Maybe he's assuming that pressure increases as you advance through a penalty shootout.

Let's say you have 2 penalty takers, and 2 penalties to take.

Player A is weaker at penalties, and converts 50% 1st pens, and 30% 2nd pens

Player B is better at penalties, and converts 60% 1st pens, and 50% 2nd pens.

If the weaker player takes the 2nd, you only have a 18% chance of converting both penalties, as opposed to a 25% chance if the weaker player goes first. This is always mathematically the case if you assume pressure increases and if the better player is consistently better across all penalties.

If you want to factor in the assumed behaviour of the opposition team, then you're getting into game theory.

However, looking at the rest of the article - Prof Tolan could just be spouting crap.

As an aside - I know economists currently working in sports economics, including devising strategies for darts players. quite interesting stuff (and who said research money was going to waste!?!!)

 

[JoshC]

Maybe he's assuming that pressure increases as you advance through a penalty shootout.

Let's say you have 2 penalty takers, and 2 penalties to take.

Player A is weaker at penalties, and converts 50% 1st pens, and 30% 2nd pens

Player B is better at penalties, and converts 60% 1st pens, and 50% 2nd pens.

If the weaker player takes the 2nd, you only have a 18% chance of converting both penalties, as opposed to a 25% chance if the weaker player goes first. This is always mathematically the case if you assume pressure increases and if the better player is consistently better across all penalties.

If you want to factor in the assumed behaviour of the opposition team, then you're getting into game theory.

However, looking at the rest of the article - Prof Tolan could just be spouting crap.

As an aside - I know economists currently working in sports economics, including devising strategies for darts players. quite interesting stuff (and who said research money was going to waste!?!!)

What happens when your 5th taker who is a penalty specialist doesn't get to take one?

 

[Pubey]

What happens when your 5th taker who is a penalty specialist doesn't get to take one?

yeah that's what I mean, I guess he's made a simplistic assumption and hasn't factored for either the ability or strategy of the opponent.

 

[Slipperduke]

Do you know how many goals Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski have scored between them this season?

Four.

FOUR!

That's less than Heskey!

 

[EastStandBlue]

Do you know how many goals Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski have scored between them this season?

Four.

FOUR!

That's less than Heskey!

But that doesn't matter, Slip, because Podolski has scored goals in the past and Klose is the joint 4th highest goal scorer in WC history which, according to Prof Tolan's maths, means they're definitely going to score goals this summer... and a lot of them.