European Championship Odds

[londonblue]

I saw in the Metro (I think it was - I was reading the paper of the guy next to me) that Ladbrokes are advertising odds of 9-2 for England to win all their group matches, and also 9-2 for England to reach the final. I'm not a betting man, but those odds don't seem all that generous to me. Given that his was an advert it didn't do anything to entice me.

What am I missing?

 

[Pubey]

People back England and the bookies know this.

Can you get England odds from foreign bookies? It'd be interesting to see how they differ

 

[southendkid]

Bookies don't base their odds on what's fair, they set the odds in such a way that they'll win no matter what. Say they've currently got £1,000,000 taken on other teams to win the Euros, then they'll calculate how much they currently would have to pay out if England won and then make sure they offer odds so that if England win they'll lose less than a million from paying out. It gets a bit more complicated in reality because people bet on things other than the eventual winner, but that's the basic principle.

 

[Uncle Leo]

People back England and the bookies know this.

Can you get England odds from foreign bookies? It'd be interesting to see how they differ

Not really, not any more. The market is almost completely international now so the opportunity to (say) back England at a bigger price with an overseas firm isn't really there. Possibly in a retail environment, but not online.

 

[londonblue]

Bookies don't base their odds on what's fair, they set the odds in such a way that they'll win no matter what. Say they've currently got £1,000,000 taken on other teams to win the Euros, then they'll calculate how much they currently would have to pay out if England won and then make sure they offer odds so that if England win they'll lose less than a million from paying out. It gets a bit more complicated in reality because people bet on things other than the eventual winner, but that's the basic principle.

And there was me thinking they worked on market forces.

 

[londonblue]

Not really, not any more. The market is almost completely international now so the opportunity to (say) back England at a bigger price with an overseas firm isn't really there. Possibly in a retail environment, but not online.

Very interesting that even on-line gambling is international. However, that still doesn't answer my question of whether or not those odds are reasonable or not?

 

[Uncle Leo]

Very interesting that even on-line gambling is international. However, that still doesn't answer my question of whether or not those odds are reasonable or not?

Sorry, only dipped briefly in to SZ last night...

9/2 for England to reach the final is pretty much in line with the market. It equates to 18.18% - probably artificially short, but that's the market for you!

Ladbrokes haven't got odds up on their website for all three England games, but I have a William Hill coupon in front of me and they go a shade over 5/1 (6.08 in decimals, about 16.5% in percentage terms) that England win all their group games. And those are shop prices - better will almost certainly available if you shopped around.

I wouldn't back either of those myself - teams don't often win all three games in their group (Germany the only side in 2012) and I'm not sure I can ever recall England doing so...

 

[londonblue]

Sorry, only dipped briefly in to SZ last night...

9/2 for England to reach the final is pretty much in line with the market. It equates to 18.18% - probably artificially short, but that's the market for you!

Ladbrokes haven't got odds up on their website for all three England games, but I have a William Hill coupon in front of me and they go a shade over 5/1 (6.08 in decimals, about 16.5% in percentage terms) that England win all their group games. And those are shop prices - better will almost certainly available if you shopped around.

I wouldn't back either of those myself - teams don't often win all three games in their group (Germany the only side in 2012) and I'm not sure I can ever recall England doing so...

Interesting, thanks.

 

[Beefy]

What are people looking at for their bets for the tournament? I've a weird feeling about Italy who I think are 16s. I have nothing to support this feeling about them, especially having seen their squad but I don't see a clear, undoubted best side and I'll always give the Italians a chance when it gets to the knock-out.

Harry Kane is getting my money for top goalscorer. The lad is special.

 

[Uncle Leo]

What are people looking at for their bets for the tournament? I've a weird feeling about Italy who I think are 16s. I have nothing to support this feeling about them, especially having seen their squad but I don't see a clear, undoubted best side and I'll always give the Italians a chance when it gets to the knock-out.

Harry Kane is getting my money for top goalscorer. The lad is special.

The Italians often do well when they are up against it. 2006 for example - I seem to recall they didn't have a great build-up for one reason or another, but mamma mia they went and won it.

They've had a few injuries of late which aren't helping. You might well be right....

France are deserved favourites in my view - home advantage, an excellent squad, an easy group - so I've been having small bets on them at regular intervals over the last few months.

 

[Ricky Otto]

I've had £50 on Belgium at 12/1. On paper they have a great team

 

[Grayson]

Paul Pogba 12/1 to be Player of the Tournament feels a great way to back France at a better price than 7/2. Always goes to a player from winning team. I'm still sour my Pirlo 80/1 lost in 2012 to Iniesta just because Spain won the final. Pirlo was far more influential to his team than Iniesta in a great team. But then I suppose I was (am) biased!

 

[manor15]

People back England and the bookies know this.

Can you get England odds from foreign bookies? It'd be interesting to see how they differ

Not really, not any more. The market is almost completely international now so the opportunity to (say) back England at a bigger price with an overseas firm isn't really there. Possibly in a retail environment, but not online.

Yep, just had a quick look to compare. Can't bet on all three group games for England with Spanish bookies yet but in terms of odds to win the tournament, they've got us at 9/1 in most cases, oddschecker has every UK bookies at 8/1 or 17/2 so slight difference but not a lot in it.

 

[manor15]

Have none of you learnt anything from Leicester? I'm sticking my savings on Albania at 500/1.

 

[Sandbach Shrimper]

France to win and Griezmann top scorer double is 22/1 with Paddy Power, quite tempting.

 

[southendkid]

Gareth Bale is tempting for top scorer at 40/1, you usually only need 5 or 6 to be top scorer and Wales revolve their game around Bale scoring. They can easily get out the group as well, Russia aren't what they used to be and Slovakia are beatable.

 

[Beefy]

Harry Kane is going to be top goal scorer though.

 

[leeblue]

Belgium seem the dark horses this year....

 

[Uncle Leo]

Belgium seem the dark horses this year....

They are 12/1. Just horses.

 

[The General]

Kompany injured isn't he?!