Automatic Promotion

[shrimptank]

How much will missing out on the title, and automatic promotion, on the last day of the season last year spur the players on this year and keep the concentration levels and will to win in the forefront of their minds?

Remembering the devastation on the faces of the players at Grimsby once the final whistle went was horrible and i think that was what spurred them on to our play off final win.

If we had beaten Yeovil we would have been champions and as the vast majority of the players are still here i think these thoughts will channel their desire for the final push and stand us in good stead for the run in.

I remember when Torquay went up at Roots Hall the season before, the look on our players faces was like... "I want some of that" as the Torquay players and staff celebrated and hey presto last year we got some!!

It's all about wanting to win more than the others and i really think we do. Nerves will come into play but mentally we look stronger than ever.

Come on you Blues!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Prodigal Son]

Quote[/b] (shrimptank @ Mar. 13 2006,18:34)]How much will missing out on the title, and automatic promotion, on the last day of the season last year spur the players on this year and keep the concentration levels and will to win in the forefront of their minds?

Remembering the devastation on the faces of the players at Grimsby once the final whistle went was horrible and i think that was what spurred them on to our play off final win.

If we had beaten Yeovil we would have been champions and as the vast majority of the players are still here i think these thoughts will channel their desire for the final push and stand us in good stead for the run in.

I remember when Torquay went up at Roots Hall the season before, the look on our players faces was like... "I want some of that" as the Torquay players and staff celebrated and hey presto last year we got some!!

It's all about wanting to win more than the others and i really think we do. Nerves will come into play but mentally we look stronger than ever.

Come on you Blues!!!!!!!!!!!

The thing that should spur them on is avoiding the play-offs because it means the players lose up to three weeks holiday.

 

[rabbloke]

Everyone talks about our players nerves as if the other promotion chasing sides are mentally made of steel. Its no worse for us, indeed it may be better that we do not have the added concern of winning games in hand. Points make prizes and we have them. We are up!

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (rabbloke @ Mar. 14 2006,10:53)]Points make prizes and we have them. We are up!

Not yet, we aren't. Counting chickens is an extremely foolish pasttime, incidentally.

I said previously that it was 85 points "minimum" for an automatic:

"85 points minimum"

It's interesting to note that my predictions there erred on the pessimistic side - then, I thought that we would have amassed a further 14 points by now; in fact, we have increased our tally by 16 points.

In addition, most of the other sides in and around the promotion race have still got to play each other whilst it's fair to say that, Brentford aside, their form has been patchy at best. In fact, in the case of the Ewes, their recent form has been nothing short of calamitous - their last five league games have seen no goals scored, seven goals conceded, four defeats and one draw.

0.2 points a game is not exactly promotion form. Swansea's form has been little better recently, to be honest - which leaves Hudds & Barnsley. Even optimistically, I'd be surprised to see Hudds & Barnsley amass more than 82 points by the end of the season.

For Hudds to make 82 points would require them to pick up 2.33 points per game in their last nine. Their current PPG (over the last 8 combined) is 1.75 - however, 5 out of their last 9 are away, and Hudds' PPG away from the Galpharm over the last 5 aways is 0.6.

For Barnsley to make 82 points would require them to pick up 2.44 PPG in their last nine. That is a lot higher than their current rate of PPG over the last 8 games of 1.5.

Our current PPG is just shy of 2.4. If we keep up our current form, we could make 12 points in our next 5 games... which would put us on 82 points.

So, these next five games are massive for us. In a sense, the pressure is on us - we are expected to win. We are playing the "cannon fodder" at the foot of the table - MK Dons, Hartlepool, Bournemouth, Blackpool, Gillingham.

However, do we have the firepower and the defence to beat those sides? Of course we do. So it is up to the players now to do it. 4 wins and a draw will put us on 83 points, and so we'd be up by Easter, I reckon. That would be a truly stunning achievement - perhaps our best ever.

Tilly & Brush - we salute you.

However, we're not up yet. Let's be clear about that... it's the winning of these next five winnable games which will determine whether or not we go up. I believe that we can do it - now the players just have to go out there and show us that they can do it.

Matt

 

[MrB]

I'm hoping for a seriously good run of results so that we clinch promotion at the Gills game as like MtS I'll be missing the Donnie and Bristol Citties game. If not, they can hold on till Swansea please

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

I reckon another 10 pts will be enough for promotion as I can't see any of the others picking up more than 19 pts from thier run-in games. However, I don't think we will be mathematically promoted until the Donny game, if that makes sense.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (BILLERICAY BLUE @ Mar. 14 2006,13:02)]I reckon another 10 pts will be enough for promotion

Anyone who still has "TIG - Bring back the cat" in his signature clearly knows naff all about football...

10 points? Nope, not quite enough. 13 will be, though.

 

[BILLERICAY BLUE]

Quote[/b] (Matt the Shrimp @ Mar. 14 2006,13:36)]Anyone who still has "TIG - Bring back the cat" in his signature clearly knows naff all about football...

Harsh but probably fair  

Perhaps I can join SUGARS instead  

Quote[/b] ]10 points?  Nope, not quite enough.  13 will be, though.

So who do you think will get to 81 points then ?

 

[gilbo]

I reckon we will hit 87 or 88 points.

 

[Matt the Shrimp]

Quote[/b] (BILLERICAY BLUE @ Mar. 14 2006,13:46)]

Quote[/b] ]10 points?  Nope, not quite enough.  13 will be, though.

So who do you think will get to 81 points then ?

One of Huddersfield or Barnsley will probably do so - whichever wins when they meet at the Galpharm on 1st April.  In many ways, that is now the biggest game of the season in the div - not least because I'm hoping the fat lady will have sung by the time we get to the Liberty on 29th April.

Quote[/b] (BILLERICAY BLUE @ Mar. 14 2006,13:46)]Perhaps I can join SUGARS instead  

Of course you can apply to join SUGARS.  Drop me a PM and offer me suitable inducements (beer & chips usually suffice)...

 

[SUFCFARAWAY]

All this talk of points needed is fair enough but no one really knows for sure. the only thing I know for sure is that I will be celebrating when 3rd place can mathamatically not catch us. And until then I will take one game at a time